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EURASIA INSIGHT

AFGHAN GOVERNMENT ATTENTION TURNS TO UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard 1/07/05

As Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s new cabinet settles in, the government’s attention is focusing on Afghanistan’s upcoming parliamentary election. The stability challenges connected with the parliamentary vote are far greater than December’s presidential election, observers say.

The parliamentary vote is now planned for early spring. The December 7 presidential election, won handily by Karzai, was marked by far less turmoil and violence than many observers had expected. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. This fact, though, has not seemed to ease concerns about the Afghan government’s ability to ensure a stable parliamentary vote.

A January 5 analysis published in the Eslah newspaper said Karzai’s political enemies, in particular the warlords who continue to dominate Afghanistan’s provinces, view the parliamentary vote as a crucial opportunity for stopping Karzai’s political momentum. Accordingly, warlords are mobilizing all forces at their disposal to influence the voting results in their respective regions, hoping to frustrate Karzai’s campaign to extend the central government’s authority. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Another potential source of turmoil is connected with Karzai’s cabinet decisions. The president, a Pashtun, generated hard feelings among the country’s sizable Tajik community by excluding several powerful Tajik political leaders from his cabinet, including former defense minister Mohammad Fahim and former education minister Yunus Qanooni. Of the Tajik leaders who were prominent in the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, and who joined Karzai in forming an interim government in 1991, only Dr. Abdullah Abdullah now remains in the president’s cabinet, continuing on as foreign minister. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Tension has long simmered between Karzai and Tajik leaders, underscored by Qanooni’s candidacy in the presidential election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But the cabinet’s composition indicates that a full break has occurred between Qanooni and Fahim on the one hand and Karzai on the other. Qanooni reportedly sought his old post as education minister only to be rebuffed by Karzai, a brother of the Tajik leader, Ibrahim Qanooni, told EurasiaNet.

Some observers now believe that inter-ethnic divisions may once again become a major factor in Afghan politics. Qanooni has already announced that he will lead a new Tajik-based political party, called New Afghanistan, which will compete in the parliamentary elections.

In addition to the growing political challenges to Karzai’s administration, officials believe that Islamic radical forces are regrouping with the intent of making a renewed push to sow disorder in Afghanistan. Taliban forces have been on the defensive in recent weeks, after suffering a severe public-relations blow over the movement’s failure to disrupt the presidential election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Islamic militant raids are continuing, although in one recent action in southern Zabul Province five Taliban fighters were killed before being repulsed by government troops.

Given Karzai’s lagging influence in many provinces, along with the ongoing Taliban insurgency, some experts and politicians in Kabul are suggesting that the parliamentary elections be postponed until the summer. The extra time would give the central government space to improve the quality of its own armed forces while pressing ahead with the disarmament of warlord-controlled military units, thus increasing the odds that stability could be maintained during an election campaign.

In the months leading up to the parliamentary election, Karzai’s cabinet will be under pressure to produce tangible economic and social gains. If it doesn’t, pro-presidential candidates could suffer at the ballot box.

When he unveiled his cabinet, Karzai portrayed its members as apolitical technocrats dedicated to making immediate improvements for all Afghans, regardless of political affiliation and ethnicity. "The people of Afghanistan have big expectations from all of us, and in your faces I see the desire to realize the hope of the Afghan people for a better Afghanistan," Karzai told his ministers at a December 27 cabinet session.

Despite Karzai’s claims about the apolitical nature of the cabinet, some of his lieutenants have strong partisan political ties. For example, one of his vice presidents, Karim Khalili, is the head of the Shi’a-dominated Hizb-i-Wahdat, or Islamic Unity Party. In addition, prominent warlord Ismail Khan, a power-broker of western Herat Province, has been brought to Kabul to serve as energy minister. Some observers believe Karzai brought Khan into the cabinet in order to keep close tabs on him. Militia units loyal to Khan battled with government forces in 2004 for control of Herat. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Editor�s Note: Camelia Entekhabi-Fard has reported from Afghanistan and Iran for EurasiaNet.

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