EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Kyrgyzstan: A New Year and New Government, But Lingering Hints of Political Rancor

EURASIA INSIGHT

KYRGYZSTAN: A NEW YEAR AND NEW GOVERNMENT, BUT LINGERING HINTS OF POLITICAL RANCOR
Joanna Lillis 1/10/08

Kyrgyzstan is starting out the new year with a new parliament and cabinet. But the Central Asian nation remains politically bruised after a bitter election that involved allegations of vote rigging, and which culminated in the exclusion of the main opposition party from the legislative process.

New members of the Kyrgyz cabinet took the oath of office January 10 during a parliamentary session. Later, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev addressed cabinet members and MPs, telling them that a constitutional transition period was coming to a close, and that the country’s leaders should now concentrate on measures to stimulate economic growth and stability.

"Every effort should be focused, above all, on efficiently combining the tasks of using domestic resources and attracting investment," Bakiyev said in his January 10 address, which was broadcast on state television. "In this connection, one of the fundamental points should be a sudden change in developing the Kyrgyz economy from a consumer economy into an investment economy. Therefore, it is necessary to more boldly, but in a well-thought-out manner opt to introduce new financial instruments.

The president urged legislators to take several specific steps, including raising the retirement age and developing a national training program that would produce a corps of technocrats. He also called on MPs to consider the privatization of state-run plants, and to authorize bond issues to fund infrastructure development.

In recent comments made to regional heads, Bakiyev stated that his administration’s top priorities for 2008 would be stimulating the agriculture sector and the strengthening of central government-regional ties.

Bakiyev’s agenda looks good on paper, but will it be implemented? In theory, parliamentary approval for his ideas should be pro forma. Official tallies gave Bakiyev’s Ak-Zhol Party a sweeping victory in the December 16 parliamentary elections, and, therefore, a dominating legislative majority. The manner in which victory was achieved, however, has fostered continuing questions about the country’s political stability. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The entire electoral process, guided by convoluted electoral changes adopted in a hastily organized referendum in October, came in for strong criticism from Western election observers. Bakiyev’s domestic opponents also protested the results, saying that incumbent authorities had engaged in massive vote rigging. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Initially it appeared that, under the newly adopted regulations, the pro-presidential Ak-Zhol Party would end up with all the seats in parliament. On December 18, however, the Supreme Court creatively re-interpreted the rules, enabling representatives from the Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party to enter parliament.

The gerrymandering has failed to satisfy many opposition supporters. "Most sober people in Kyrgyzstan realize that when the rules are changed after the game, another idiocy is being committed," said Feliks Kulov, the former prime minister and current leader of the opposition Ar-Namys party, which failed to enter parliament.

The main reason for the lingering discontent was that the Ata Meken Party, the largest opposition force in the country, was excluded from parliament, even though it gained 8.3 percent of the nationwide vote -- more than three percentage points more than either the Communists or Social Democrats received. Election authorities justified the exclusion on the fact that Ata Meken supposedly did not clear an electoral threshold in the southern Osh Region. Ata Meken representatives, who insist they won about 30 percent of the nationwide vote, lost a Supreme Court appeal.

Holding a dominating parliamentary majority, Ak-Zhol named 46-year-old Igor Chudinov, an entrepreneur with a background in the energy sector, as prime minister. In place less than a week, Chudinov was hit with his first crisis - a series of New Year’s Day earthquake in southern Kyrgyzstan, the largest measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale and causing extensive property damage.

Some analysts question the long-term advisability of having the main opposition party not represented in parliament. "I don’t think that’s sustainable," Michael Denison, an expert on Central Asian affairs at the University of Leeds, told EurasiaNet.

Ata Meken was not the only opposition party to cry foul following the election. "With the parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan, a dictatorship of one family has ultimately been established," the 24.kg news agency quoted Asaba leader Azimbek Beknazarov as saying. Beknazarov compared Bakiyev’s efforts to accumulate power to those of his predecessor, Askar Akayev, who ultimately overreached and, in the ensuing reaction, was forced to resign and flee the country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "Kurmanbek Bakiyev has done what Askar Akayev tried to do for 15 years but didn’t manage to accomplish," Beknazarov said.

Bakiyev has acknowledged that electoral violations occurred, but has downplayed their significance, insisting that the December 16 balloting was "the most honest and cleanest since Kyrgyzstan has been in existence."

Although the cabinet contains some new blood, a multitude of familiar faces remain. Key officials retaining their ministerial portfolios included the defense, foreign and interior ministers. New ministers included Tazhikhan Kalimbetova - a former deputy finance minister who took over as finance minister from Akylbek Zhaparov, who, in turn, moved to the Economic Development and Trade Ministry. Mayor of Bishkek Arstanbek Nogoyev became agriculture minister, Marat Mambetov became health minister and Saparbek Balkibekov was made industry and energy minister.

Many analysts interpreted the election results as an attempt by Bakiyev to consolidate power and to firmly establish his dominance over political rivals, who in 2006 and 2007 staged mass protests that came close to ending the president’s political career. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

After years of political infighting, which weakened the effectiveness of the central government and promoted regional rivalries, Bakiyev has to concentrate on promoting a sense of cohesion, Denison said. "It’s about bringing people into the big yurt. It’s giving people a stake in the system," he said.

With Ata Meken left out in the cold, it remains to be seen how successful any attempt by Bakiyev to promote national unity and stability can be. At the same time, most analysts agree that as the third anniversary of the Tulip Revolution approaches in the spring, the appetite for popular protest is limited.

Editor�s Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer based in Central Asia.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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