EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Russia-Kazakhstan: Medvedev Tries to Pick Up Where Putin Left Off

EURASIA INSIGHT

RUSSIA-KAZAKHSTAN: MEDVEDEV TRIES TO PICK UP WHERE PUTIN LEFT OFF
Joanna Lillis 5/23/08

New Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, making his first foreign foray as president, visited Kazakhstan to emphasize the importance of energy issues in the Kremlin’s geopolitical mindset. While Medvedev and Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev offered effusive praise for bilateral ties, the host nevertheless stressed that Astana’s energy-export policy would continue to be based on pragmatic considerations, and not Russian wishful thinking.

Medvedev, along with his political patron, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, sees Kazakhstan as the lynchpin of Russia’s strategy to exert dominating influence over Caspian Basin energy resources. Accordingly, the Medvedev visit was part of a long string of contacts designed to curry the favor of Nazarbayev, who in recent years has promoted a "multi-vectored" foreign policy that seeks to play Russia, China and the United States off each other in order to maximize Kazakhstan’s geopolitical benefits. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Astana did not become the first foreign capital that I have visited as president of Russia by chance," Medvedev told a news conference after his talks with Nazarbayev on May 22. "The main thing is that Russia values the genuinely friendly and mutually-advantageous relations with Kazakhstan, our strategic partner."

Nazarbayev went further, characterizing bilateral links as tighter than those binding any other two states on earth. "I do not think there are such close, fraternal relations as there are between Kazakhstan and Russia [elsewhere] in the world," the Kazakhstani leader stated.

A joint declaration signed during Medvedev’s visit designated the Commonwealth of Independent States as the main forum for cooperation. It also mentioned the Eurasian Economic Community and the Collective Security Treaty Organization as venues for the strengthening of bilateral ties. The two leaders urged the CIS to emphasize energy cooperation in 2009, and Medvedev stressed that the strengthening of the CIS would be a key Russian priority in the coming months and years. "Russia has proceeded and proceeds from the fact that our most important partners are the CIS states," he said.

Both leaders seemed reluctant to reveal details about their energy discussions on May 22. Their talks came only weeks after Kazakhstan broke ranks with Russia by ratifying a deal to export oil via the Western-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Reports circulating prior to the Russian president’s arrival suggested that Nazarbayev and Medvedev might ink a deal to more than double the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to 67 million tons of oil annually -- an expansion long sought by Kazakhstan. Such an agreement never materialized, however. Kazakhstan’s deputy energy minister, Lyazat Kiinov, told an energy conference in Ukraine on May 22 that a CPC expansion might be finalized by the end of May. At the same time, news reports have circulated about fresh objections to an expansion, with the main obstacle remaining the Russian desire for an increased share of the pipeline’s profits. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The joint declaration specified no new energy commitments, stating only that the two countries would "proceed from economic expediency" in extracting and transporting hydrocarbons. Just about the closest the statement came to announcing a new initiative was an agreement by the two states to jointly develop new, though unnamed Caspian Basin hydrocarbon deposits.

The leaders attempted to smooth over one sore point in relations -- Russia’s use of the Baikonur space facility. Controversy came to a head in 2007, when a Russian rocket crashed, causing damage estimated by Kazakhstan at $60 million. Russia subsequently agreed to pay a fraction of that sum, $2.5 million, in compensation. The joint declaration spoke diplomatically of ensuring that the use of Baikonur is beneficial for Russia, Kazakhstan and other nations. It also expressed a desire to boosting space cooperation. Kazakhstan is keen to expand its space industry presence; after launching its first satellite in 2006, it is now preparing to launch a second, and is also lobbying to send a cosmonaut to the International Space Station.

Little was made public about defense-related discussions, despite a pre-visit announcement by Kazakhstan’s defense minister, Daniyal Akhmetov, that Astana was interested in purchasing Russian missile-defense systems. The large Russian delegation included Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, as well as the foreign and energy ministers, the heads of the space agency and the state-controlled energy giant Gazprom, along with a group of senior business executives.

Economic links featured high on the agenda, underscored by the signing of an agreement on nanotechnology cooperation. The two countries also announced plans to draw up a new economic cooperation blueprint to replace the existing format. "We speak one economic language," Medvedev claimed.

That common language was far from evident on one important proposal under consideration. Medvedev seemed less than enthusiastic about Nazarbayev’s idea of building a canal linking the Caspian and Black Seas. Nazarbayev pointedly invoked his pragmatic agenda, saying Kazakhstan would use Russia as a transit route only so long as it was in Kazakhstan’s interests. "We never intend to bypass anyone, still less Russia, if the opportunities are provided," Nazarbayev stated.

Russian media ballyhooed the visit as a diplomatic success for Medvedev. A report on the Astana discussions appeared in the Izvestiya daily under the headline "Indestructible Union," which are also the first two words in the old Soviet national anthem. For his part, Nazarbayev is clearly dancing to a very different tune, which, if it had a title, might be called The Pragmatic Partnership.

Editor�s Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specializes in Central Asia.

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