EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Georgia: Saakashvili and Medvedev Meet, Nothing Happens

EURASIA INSIGHT

GEORGIA: SAAKASHVILI AND MEDVEDEV MEET, NOTHING HAPPENS
Nina Akhmeteli 6/06/08

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili met for the first time on June 6 with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. The two leaders provided no indicators that they had found a way to ease bilateral tension.

After appearing briefly before reporters for a staged exchange of greetings and an expression of their willingness to tackle the problems between them, Saakashvili and Medvedev continued their discussion behind closed doors. "There are many unsettled problems, but all of them can be solved," the Itar-Tass news agency quoted Saakashvili as saying. The meeting took place on the sidelines of a CIS summit in St. Petersburg.

At a June 5 press conference in the Georgian port city of Batumi, Saakashvili said that he would push for the withdrawal of additional Russian peacekeeper troops and railway troops from Abkhazia, and the revocation of an April 16 decree that established direct ties between Russia and the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Few in Tbilisi, however, expected the chat with Medvedev to generate movement on any of these issues. "I have a very short answer when I am asked what I expect from the meeting of the presidents. The answer is -- nothing," said Giorgi Khutsishvili, chairman of the International Center on Conflict and Negotiation. "The time when we can say that Medvedev manages the situation has not come yet."

"Medvedev’s position will not change unless Russia’s national interests are changed," commented Shalva Pichkhadze, chairman of the board of the non-governmental organization Georgia for NATO.

One senior US diplomat, however, sounded more optimistic. "There is a possibility for a breakthrough declaration to be signed between the parties. It’s very close," US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza told EurasiaNet at a June 4 conference in Baku before traveling to Moscow for talks with Russian officials. "And to make it happen, I think Russia needs to take a few de-escalatory steps."

Georgia has pressed for the replacement of permanent Russian peacekeeping troops with an international force. Yet, even if Russia were to agree on paper to a deal that would satisfy Georgia, implementation would remain a problem. That is because Abkhaz leaders are adamant about having Russian peacekeepers remain in the breakaway territory. "There is no alternative to Russia’s peacekeepers in the conflict zone," Sergei Bagapsh, the breakaway region’s de facto president, was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti after his June 6 meeting with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

"The issue of their replacement by any other forces won’t be discussed with anyone," Bagapsh continued. "If Georgia wants to withdraw [Russian] peacekeepers from its territory [Peacekeepers are located in a security zone running through two other regions that border on Abkhazia -- ed], we will do everything to make them stay in Abkhazia."

The debate on the composition of the peacekeeping force appears likely to gain momentum in the coming weeks. On June 5, the European Parliament passed a resolution stating that the present peacekeeping format must be revised because the Russian peacekeepers have "lost their role of neutral and impartial peacekeepers." The assembly called for "a deeper" European involvement in Georgia’s territorial conflicts "in order to move the peace processes forward."

Yet, in remarks to reporters in Tbilisi before his trip to Abkhazia, Solana dodged a flat-out condemnation of Moscow’s role. Instead, he stressed that Russia "is an important player" and that any change in the peacekeeping mission "will have to be agreed by the parties."

Solana’s trip to the Abkhaz capital Sokhumi, he added, is meant to see how the EU can play "a constructive role" in conflict resolution.

Some Georgian analysts say Solana’s diplomatic efforts are doomed to fail. "By saying that resolution of the conflict is impossible without Russia, the European Union basically washed its hands of the conflict," said political analyst Ramaz Klimiashvili.

Others, however, believe that the time has finally come when the European Union will take more concrete action in trying to help resolve Georgia’s territorial conflicts. Russia’s recent behavior in Abkhazia clearly crossed a red line for the West, commented Georgian Institute for Public Affairs analyst Tornike Sharashenidze.

"The European position will be united on one issue -- the territorial integrity of Georgia," said Sharashenidze. "Russia by its recent actions � has essentially accelerated the process of more active involvement by the EU."

Before his talk with Saakashvili, Medvedev emphasized that problems in Georgian-Russian relations can be resolved without mediators, but, for Georgia’s leader, Western support appears to be the only way out of the deadlock. "We need a European civilized and soft approach today as never before," Saakashvili said at a joint press conference with Solana in Batumi.

Officially, Tbilisi has emphasized that war is not the way to resolve differences over Abkhazia. However, according to a June 5 report from the International Crisis Group, some government hawks are promoting a military response.

"Tbilisi urges a peaceful resolution to the conflict, but influential hawks in the government, especially in some of its power centers, and several key National Movement parliamentarians are pushing for more robust action," the report found. "So far moderates, urging caution so as to protect foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic development, appear to have kept the upper hand."

[Editor’s Note: The International Crisis Group receives funding from the Open Society Institute. EurasiaNet.org operates under the auspices of OSI’s Central Eurasia Project].

Analysts in Tbilisi largely agreed with the report’s findings. "There is big pressure on Saakashvili from influential figures about taking troops into Abkhazia," said political analyst Klimiashvili. "So far, he is against this, knowing that it is not beneficial for him. "

But one observer believes that the message from the West that Georgia should steer clear of "provocative actions" has recently strengthened the position of the government’s doves.

"The restoration of territorial integrity and resolving the conflict [with Abkhazia] differ from each other," said Archil Gegeshidze, a senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. "The main aim of the authorities today is to prove to the other side of the conflict that there is no threat of military action."

Some officials, however, insist that the use of force should not be completely ruled out. One such hawk is First Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria, who, in a June 5 interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Georgian service, affirmed that while Georgia was doing everything possible to prevent violence, "this can’t happen at the expense of conceding our territory or sovereignty."

"Not a single democratic government could accept what has been happening [in Georgia] in recent days," Bokeria added.

Editor�s Note: Nina Akhmeteli is a freelance reporter based in Tbilisi. Caucasus News Editor Elizabeth Owen added reporting from Baku.

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