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EURASIA INSIGHT

AZERBAIJAN MULLS STRONGER US TIES
Shahin Abbasov 12/01/04

Officials in Baku believe US President George W. Bush’s re-election could be beneficial for Azerbaijan, with the country poised to assume a higher profile among US strategic planners. At the same time, the prospect of closer US ties could deepen a geopolitical dilemma for President Ilham Aliyev. It would be virtually impossible for Baku to boost relations with Washington without disrupting Azerbaijan’s "balanced" relationship with Russia, local experts contend.

At present, Aliyev’s administration appears to feel that the opportunities created by a stronger US-Azerbaijani relationship outweigh the potential liabilities. "We attach a particular attention to developing relations of friendship and cooperation with the US," Aliyev said in a November 4 letter of congratulations to Bush, the state news agency reported. "Azerbaijan, which is following a path of building a democratic, legal and secular society, is resolute in taking its relations with the United States to a higher level."

Since 2001, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a dependable ally in the US-led ant-terrorism struggle. Baku, for example, has dispatched 159 military personnel to Iraq to help the stabilization effort there. Hailing Bush for building "peace and tranquility throughout the world," Aliyev in his congratulatory statement was quick to cite the contribution. "Azerbaijan . . . will make further contributions to the maintenance of peace and safety in the region," Aliyev wrote. "I have to stress once again that the Azerbaijani position on that issue is constant."

Aliyev also expressed gratitude for the US backing for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. The route, which is expected to become operational in 2005, will transport Caspian Basin energy resources to Western markets. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Continued US support for the BTC pipeline is deemed essential to ensure the new route’s profitability.

Aliyev’s comments may signal a subtle shift in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. In recent years, Baku has pursued closer relations with the United States, while hedging its bets by maintaining friendly ties with Russia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Now it would seem Aliyev is seriously pondering a more resolute move towards the West.

While Aliyev has clearly articulated his desire for a stronger US-Azerbaijani strategic relationship, he has given no indication of how he would turn words into action. Novruz Mamedov, head of the presidential administration’s foreign policy department, indicated that "some changes" are inevitable, but he was evasive when pressed by journalists in Baku. The lack of an implementation framework for new initiatives leads some Azerbaijani observers to question whether the country’s existing foreign policy will actually change significantly.

Several potential stumbling blocks remain in place, the most important being the Nagorno-Karabakh question. In return for increased Azerbaijani support for US foreign policy goals in the Caucasus and Middle East, Baku clearly would expect to receive stronger US backing in the stalemated Nagorno-Karabakh process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The search for a Karabakh settlement is perhaps the defining issue of Azerbaijani political life today. Foreign Ministry spokesman Metin Mirza said Baku wants the United States to "make more active efforts on the issue of securing peace and stability in the South Caucasus region."

The United States currently serves as a co-chair of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, the four-country body charged with mediating an end to the Karabakh conflict. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. US officials have provided no indication of any pending change in the existing US stance on the Karabakh question.

The Bush administration’s approach toward Iran, Azerbaijan’s southern neighbor, could also strongly influence the development of US-Azerbaijani ties. The United States is adamantly opposed to Iran’s nuclear research efforts, insisting that Tehran strives to manufacture nuclear weapons. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In the aftermath of Bush’s re-election, talk has revived in Washington about the viability of taking active measures to promote regime change in Tehran. Any such measures would likely require the establishment of a US military base in Azerbaijan. Even without an attempt at regime change in Iran, US defense officials appear interested in exploring the feasibility of an American base in Azerbaijan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

A group of political analysts, in a commentary printed by the Azerbaijani daily Zerkalo on November 20, argued that a US base in Azerbaijan would be detrimental to the Caucasus country’s national security. "Yes, such a political move [granting US base privileges] would allow us to change the regional balance in our favor, but this would be temporary," the commentary said. "As a result, Azerbaijan would have to face legal and illegal protests from the rest of the [regional] centers of power."

"Although our northern neighbor lags behind the United States in many areas, it does not necessarily mean that Moscow is going to give up easily its positions in the post-Soviet space," the commentary continued.

As the commentary indicates, Russia retains an ability to cause socio-economic disruption in Azerbaijan. For example, in the wake of the early September terrorism tragedy in Beslan, Russia closed its border with Azerbaijan, causing a surge in prices for consumer goods and foodstuffs in Azerbaijan. The border re-opened only after Aliyev visited Moscow in mid-October, the third such trip the Azerbaijani president made to Russia in 2004.

Russia’s future stance toward Azerbaijan could be influenced by developments in Ukraine, where an increasingly bitter political standoff over fraudulent presidential election results is ongoing. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. If pro-Moscow forces succeed in retaining power in Ukraine, Russia could feel emboldened, and attempt to expand its influence in other CIS states, including Azerbaijan. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Conversely, if opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko succeeds in coming to power, Russia could find itself bogged down in a geopolitical struggle over Ukraine. Yushchenko makes no secret that he would steer Ukraine towards integration with the West.

Editor�s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance journalist in Azerbaijan.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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