EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - US Military Chief Announces New Supply Network for Afghanistan

EURASIA INSIGHT

US MILITARY CHIEF ANNOUNCES NEW SUPPLY NETWORK FOR AFGHANISTAN
Deirdre Tynan 1/20/09

The US military will expand its northern distribution network for Afghanistan through the Central Asian states, the US military chief for the Middle East and Central Asia has confirmed. The news comes amidst reports about an offer from Moscow to provide military support to Afghanistan.

Speaking at a January 19 press conference in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, General David Petraeus said that transit agreements had been secured with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia. "[W]e all share a major common interest in preserving and strengthening stability and security here in Central Asia," Petraeus stated.

Details about the Russian transit agreement were not immediately available. Russia had earlier agreed in principle to the transportation of non-military equipment for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations in Afghanistan via Russian railroads.

Separately, it emerged on January 20 that Russia itself has offered Afghanistan "broad assistance" in countering security problems, including military support. Moscow says it was petitioned by Afghan President Hamid Karzai in late 2008 to provide technical support, including the supply of defensive equipment, Russian news sources reported.

The status of one reported focus for both Russian and US interest -- the air base at Manas airport near Bishkek -- will remain unchanged in the new supply network. The base will stay an "important logistic ring in the northern chain of equipment supplies to Afghanistan," Petraeus said, adding that senior Kyrgyz officials had assured him they had no plans to close the base. In recent months, speculation has run rampant that Bishkek would back out of the deal under pressure from Moscow.

The Kyrgyz government, which currently receives $63 million per year in rent for the base, can expect a greater benefits package in return for its continuing cooperation, Gen. Petreaus said. "[A] team of senior officers" will travel to Bishkek in February to discuss potential specific programs, he added.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan’s southern neighbor, has also agreed to the transportation of commercial goods to US facilities in Afghanistan and earlier this month negotiated a bilateral deal with Kabul for the cross-border transportation of humanitarian supplies.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) head has toured Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in the past week seeking support for the supply route.

The new transportation corridor will supplement existing supply lines through Pakistan’s Khyber Pass and is designed to support the introduction of an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan as the country struggles with a sharp increase in violence and prepares to hold presidential elections later this year.

Attacks on NATO units have increased "by some 40 or so percent from 2007 to 2008," with a notable deterioration in "the security situation in the eastern and southern parts of Afghanistan," Gen. Petraeus said. "It is necessary to take actions to arrest the downward spiral and begin to improve that situation."

One regional analyst warns, however, that the US and NATO do not yet have a full appreciation of the inherent problems -- both political and logistical - associated with the northern transit corridor.

"[D]oes CENTCOM and the new administration realize that the countries of Central Asia that they’re relying on are a vulnerable and fragile bunch of players?" commented Paul Quinn-Judge, the Bishkek-based Central Asia project director for the International Crisis Group. "All of them have serious problems with governance, a number of them are crippled by corruption and several of them, especially Tajikistan, have infrastructure that is crumbling by the minute."

"Has anybody from CENTCOM driven through Tajikistan recently?" Quinn- Judge continued. "Most roads aren’t paved, and many not passable even if they are paved . . . This is a reflection of how deeply concerned they are by Pakistan."

That concern could provide an opening for Moscow, according to one Russian government analyst.

The northern distribution network will grow in importance if US-Pakistani relations continue to be strained, said Lieutenant General Leonid Sazhin, an analyst for the Russian Federal Security Service.

"If the Khyber Pass and the road to Kandahar get blocked by the Taliban, then the US and NATO have no choice of other than the alternative routes through Central Asia," Sazhin said in a January 19 interview with ITAR-TASS. "And as airplanes can’t deliver much, ground transport corridors are necessary and here Americans need Russia."

Editor's Note: Deirdre Tynan is a freelance writer based in Bishkek.

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