From: Justin Burke (JBurke@sorosny.org)
Date: Tue Feb 15 2000 - 11:05:49 EST
BACKTRACKING IN BISHKEK
RFERL Analysis by Liz Fuller
On 20 February, Kyrgyzstan will hold parliamentary
elections that look set to demolish the myth that the country
is a small oasis of democracy in authoritarian Central Asia.
True, Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akaev has pledged
repeatedly that the poll will be free and fair. But on the
basis of dubious court rulings, the Central Electoral
Committee has barred two major opposition parties from
participating. Kyrgyz NGOs, for their part, have gathered
extensive evidence of restrictions on opposition access to
the state-run media and of harassment by local officials of
individual opposition candidates. The National Democratic
Institute and the OSCE last week both issued statements
expressing concern at what they termed unfair and unjustified
restrictions on the election process.
The Kyrgyz authorities' reluctance to risk a free poll
derives less from the perceived need to contain a pernicious
rival political ideology than from the desire to retain
power. By contrast, for the overwhelming majority of the
country's 4.8 million inhabitants, the sole issue at stake is
survival in conditions of increasing economic hardship.
According to a UN Development Program study released last
month, 55 percent of Kyrgyzstan's population live below the
poverty level. Local observers calculate that up to 1 million
people have no fixed employment and live from shuttle trade.
Some 3,000 young people congregate each morning in a Bishkek
street known as "the slave market" in the hope of finding
casual work.
Even those fortunate enough to have jobs find it
difficult to make ends meet. The minimum monthly salary is
about 100 soms ($2.2), while the monthly minimum subsistence
level is 10 times higher. Social benefits are symbolic--the
basic pension is also about 100 soms but is rarely paid
promptly--and as of December 1999, the Kyrgyz government owed
some $2.5 million in unpaid pensions.
Nor is there any prospect of a swift improvement in the
economic situation. Kyrgyzstan's foreign debt now stands at
$1.4 billion, the equivalent of annual GDP, of which $87
million must be repaid this year (that sum is equal to 44
percent of projected budget expenditure). The top priority
for increased budget spending is not the social sector but
the military, in the hope of precluding a repeat of last
summer's humiliating incursions and abductions by Islamic
guerrillas based in Tajikistan.
Given the dimensions of the economic crisis and its
impact on the population, it is hardly surprising that the
authorities sought to preclude the participation in the
parliamentary elections of those parties giving priority to
social justice. In December, a Bishkek district court ruled
that the El (Bei Bechara) Party (the Party of the Oppressed),
which is the country's second-largest after the Communist
Party, cannot participate in the elections, as its original
statutes did not mention that objective. The party's appeals
against that ruling were rejected, several of its leading
members were offered lucrative diplomatic or government
posts, and a court case was brought against its leader,
Daniyar Usenov.
The Central Electoral Commission initially registered
the opposition Party of the Democratic Movement of
Kyrgyzstan, but that registration is in doubt since a Bishkek
court ruled that the party's January congress, which drew up
the list of the party's candidates to contend the 15 seats in
the 60-strong lower house of the new legislature, was
illegal. Heading the party's list was one of the country's
most influential and popular opposition politicians, former
Bishkek Mayor Feliks Kulov. Kulov resigned from that post in
April 1999 to protest what he termed President Akaev's
tolerance of illegal and anti-democratic activities by
unnamed members of his entourage, and he founded his own
political party, Ar-Namys (Honor), which is already the
third-largest in Kyrgyzstan.
Under the existing electoral law, however, Ar-Namys does
not qualify to participate in the polls as it was formally
registered with the Justice Ministry less than 12 months
before the elections. Kulov's campaign to have Russian
designated a state language in Kyrgyzstan would have
guaranteed him the support of much of the country's estimated
700,000 ethnic Russians.
Nine political parties and two blocs remain registered
to contend the poll. Of those, four parties are in opposition
to the government and three are moderate, while two parties
and both blocs are unequivocally pro-government. In addition,
239 candidates registered to contend 45 seats in single-
mandate constituencies in the lower house and another 216 to
compete for 45 seats in the upper house. But of those 455, 37
have been struck off the list for failing either to provide
income declarations or to meet the minimum residence
requirement in the district where they intended to run.
The use of the courts to bar opposition candidates and
parties on the basis of either fabricated evidence or minor
technical infringements is convenient insofar as it is
adduced by government representatives as evidence of the
independence of the three branches of power. In late January,
presidential press secretary Osmonakun Ibraimov told RFE/RL
that the administration has refrained from "interfering" in
the work of the Central Electoral Commission precisely in
order to preclude charges of undemocratic meddling in the
election process.
But that approach ultimately reflects poorly on
Kyrgyzstan's image. It also raises the question, touched on
by Kulov last year, of whether President Akaev is in control
of the situation, or whether, as some Russian journalists
have suggested, he is being manipulated by members of his
entourage and immediate family, including his Kazakh son-in-
law. Even if, as seems likely, the majority of parliamentary
deputies elected on 20 February support the present
leadership's policies, Akaev will face a second test of his
popularity in the presidential poll later this year.
Potential challengers include Kulov and Communist Party of
Kyrgyzstan leader Absamat Masaliev--that is, if they are not
barred from running.
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