Uzbekistan - Russia: Attraction and Antagonism Factors

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations on March 20, 1992, Uzbekistan and Russia periodically come closer together or alienate with each other. Islam Karimov, the President of Uzbekistan during all these years was rather jealous on any statements of Russian officials or mass media publications that were not in line with his views on independent political course taken in Uzbekistan. As for the Russian authorities, for a long period of time did not view Central Asia as a region where Russian does not have any vitally important interests; there was a dominating opinion that here Russia loses more than gets, and that the Central Asian countries are the "weights on the legs of new Russia".

Even though Russia was mostly interested in events undergoing in the West, Moscow was also closely watching the events taking place in Central Asia. Up till a certain moment an independent position of Uzbekistan on some important issues did not worry Moscow too much. In Moscow there was a prevailing traditional belief that Uzbekistan as well as other Central Asian countries will keep staying in Moscow's political influence zone without any additional efforts on its part. The anxiety started arising when it became clear that there was a tendency of Russia's loss of its economic influence in the region. While Moscow was involved in domestic issues and struggle, the first Chechen campaign, etc., USA, Japan, England, and other economically developed countries filled the niche that became vacant by conducting an "economic expansion in the region."

Caution and balance of estimates that invariably were given with regard to Moscow by the President of Uzbekistan were accompanied by some specific actions that were making unsteady the economic position of Russia in Uzbekistan. Besides the decline in the volume of trade between Uzbekistan and Russia, and exclusion of some Russian goods from the Uzbek market, Moscow, most likely was also dissatisfied with some political actions taken by Uzbekistan. Thus, with regard to the issue of transportation of Caspian oil, Uzbekistan has taken position that was unfavorable for Russia: transportation, in opinion of Uzbekistan, should be conducted through the territory of Georgia and Azerbaijan in the direction of Mediterranean terminals of Turkey. Besides, even though Uzbekistan agrees that it is necessary for it to have strategic partnership with Russia and underlines impossibility of achieving security in the Central Assia without involvement of Russia, always categorically refused to admit possibility of establishment of politico-military blocks within the framework of CIS.

The attempt to estalish "unitied economic zone" by three Central-Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan) was not approved by Moscow either. To tell the truth, all the declarations about unification of Central Asian countries had force only on paper and from the very beginning were broken by one or another party that signed the agreement about the union. For a long time the claims of Moscow to have a special role in Central-Asian region were not understood in Uzbekistan, and the local press often used to criticize "dark forces" of Russian that strive for restoration of the former empire.

Russia, while rapidly losing its economic and political positions in the Central Asia and concentrating all its forces on internal problems, kept carrying out "great break" of its economy, still viewing the Central Asia as "cut slice". The chance to get back its former position came, as it often happens, unexpectedly. There are two major factors that nowadays contribute to restoration of the role of Moscow in the region. The first factor is the victory of talibs in Afghanistan in 1996. The second factor is the fact that the Central-Asian countries are becoming a huge coridor for drugs transition from Afghanistan.

None of European countries is interested to such an extent as Russia in solution of problems related to expansion of Islamic fundamentalism from the south and clampdown of drugs transit to Russia where in some region there is a unexampled rise in number of drug-addicted people. At the same time, the Central Asian countries most likely came to the conclusion that it is difficult to rely only on their own forces in the solution of the above-mentioned problems. It seems, this explains the fact of obvious improvement of relations between Uzbekistan and Russia during the last few months.

During the visit to Uzbekistan of the Russian Prime-Minister Vladimir Putin in December 1999 Islam Karimov said: "We view Russia as a power that together with us can resist terrorism and extremism." During that visit there was signed a Treaty on Deepening of Cooperation in Military and Military-Technical Areas. Moreover, in fall of the same year instead of the joint military exercises with NATO on the territory of Uzbekistan there were carried out paper battles "Southern screen of the Commonwealth" where Russia took an active part. Giving a speech on the session of Olyi Mazhlis, Islam Karimov underlined: "The traditionally formed historical, economical, and cultural relations with Russia always were of determinative importance for Uzbekistan and for whole our region... The currently opening new opportunities of the development of many-sided cooperation and strategic partnership between our countries on the basis of equality and mutual benefit equally meet the interests of the sides."

During the session break in his interview given to journalists Islam Karimov has even more underlined the role of Russia in present situation: "We are under the threat of creeping expansion of international terrorism, and I keep asking the ambassadors of big and small countries: who will stand next to us when someone will start to blast us? And I am very glad that the most clear answer I received from Russia. We rely on military-technical potential of Russia."

While the Western countries are putting rather big pressure on Moscow because of its military operation in Chechnya, none of CIS counties openly criticized Russia. The President of Uzbekistan expressed his understanding of Moscow policy in Caucasus, underlining that he cannot "suggest any other methods of struggle with Chechen terrorism and separatism that would be more acceptable than those that all of us are criticizing nowadays."

The new acting President of Russia Vladimir Putin got the complete support during the last summit of the heads of SIC countries that was held in Moscow on January 24-25, 2000. Vladimir Putin was unanimously elected as the Chairman of the Council of the heads of CIS countries. This election was named by the President of Uzbekistan on press-conference as the "principle decision." "This, - Islam Karimov said, - allows to be very optimistic about the future existence of CIS. The existence of CIS mainly depends on Russia that is the link of the Commonwealth." Islam Karimov noted also that by expressing his support he expresses the opinion of Uzbekistan with regard to the appropriate candidature for the post of the President of Russia. During the last summit the head of CIS countries also discussed the issue of "Resistance to the international terrorism with consideration of the results of Istanbul OSCE summit." All the countries have signed the joint program of struggle with international terrorism and extremism and also made a decision about establishment of united anti-terroristic center.

At the same time, Uzbekistan took some actions that, as the authorities believe, should prevent from enterance of Islam extremists and drugs couriers into the country. Thus, from January 2000, to enter Uzbekistan, citizens of all the foreign countries would have to have Uzbek entry visas; with that visa regime will be primarily applied to the citizens of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. This year, starting from summer, citizens of Russia and other CIS countries will not be able to enter Uzbekistan without visas either. As announced the press-officer of the minister of foreign affair of Uzbekistan, Bahodir Umarov, on the border there were already cases when citizens of non-CIS countries were attempting to enter Uzbekistan with visas of other CIS countries. According to him, there were cases when soldiers of extremist organizations with Tajik and Kyrgyz visas were trying to enter the territory of Uzbekistan on their way to Chechnya. Besides, by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan, starting from the 1st of January 2000 were introduced new customs rules under which there should be imposed customs duties in the amount of 200 EUR on cargoes brought to Uzbekistan from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. These duties are imposed only on under-excise goods.

Uzbekistan and Russia are getting closer even though the "Edinstvo" party, that was established for Putin and unquestionably supports him, as some observers believe, inspired by the ideas of the national revenge. "The nerve of the "Edinstvo" is the national revenge, - says one of the Kremlin high level officials, - this means that in the beginning the party wants to guarantee preservation of the country, and then feasible expansion, given that, as an experience shows, Russia may either get ruined or develop."

Thus, new geopolitical lay out assumes, on the one hand, even bigger difficulties for entering of uncontrolled cargoes and travelers into Uzbekistan, and on the other hand, more active participation of Moscow with regard to all the cases related to "the threat of creeping expansion of international terrorism". By providing such a protection, Russia gets its "military-technical" niche in the Central Asia as well as a rather effective lever for restoration of its former political and economic influence.