To Which Extent is Realistic the Threat of Armed Incursion into the Southern Border of Uzbekistan?

Recently in the press of the Central Asian countries there was published an increased number of articles with reports about spring armed incursion of religious extremists from the territory of Afganistan into the southern borders of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Thus, as early as in the end of February the newspaper "Vecherniy Bishkek" informed that illegal Uzbek opposition was planning to quarter four thousand fighters in two camps in the North of Afganistan in close proximity to the border of Uzbekistan. Later on, there have been published numerous reports about preparations of armed opposition fighters to exert armed pressure on Uzbek and Kyrgyz authorities.

During the first part of April the authorities of Uzbekistan took several steps aimed at neutralizing the possible threat from the South. Thus, on the 1^st of April the defense ministers of Uzbekistan general-lieutenant Yuriy Agzamov arrived in Dushambe to held the final phase of the joint CIS command-staff training exercises "Southern Shield – 2000." In his interview to the correspondent of the 1^st channel of Tajik television the defense minister of Uzbekistan said that these training exercises were extremely important, given that during these training exercises they were mastering joint actions of all the military force structures including frontier-guards, internal troops, secret services, and army forces sub-units.

Also in the beginning of April in Chirchik city garrison there were held joint Uzbek-American training exercises named "Balance Umbra – 2000." According to Uzbek newspapers, during these training exercises Uzbekistan servicemen have been learning the tactics of military actions against terrorist band-formations in mountains. In general, according to one of the articles, training of military forces of Uzbekistan recently was revised to ensure that they could be ready to repulse any provocation or armed incursion.

The law-enforcement bodies of Uzbekistan have performed a wide-scale complex operation "Arsenal." According to the newspaper of the ministry of internal affairs, this operation was aimed at stabilizing operational situation, preventing crimes, revealing the facts of illegal storing of weapons, ammunition, explosives. Together with militiamen in this operation participated also members of the public formations "Mahallya Posbonlary." The inspections resulted in temporary stopage of activities of 13 objects that flagrantly violated the legislation in force, as well as in revealing the cases of illegal storing of 243 barrels, about 1200 units of ammunition of various calibre, 3 grenades, 275 fulminate caps, 445 grams of explosives. The whole discovered arsenal has been confiscated. They have instituted criminal proceedings against 55 citizens. During this operation citizens have volantiraly handed in 174 barrels.

The other countries that have a common border with the dangerous region do not stay aside either. Thus, in Astana there was held a two-day meeting of defense ministers of so-call "Shanghai Group of Five" – Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. This group was formed in 1996 for the purpose of "strengthening the measures of trust in military sphere in the region of common border" of these countries. The main issue discussed during this meeting was the problem of fight against terrorism. With this, on the threshold of the visit of the State Secretary of the USA Madlen Allbright to the Central Asia, the defense ministry of Russia announced that it would be glad to see Uzbekistan as a member of "Shanghai Group of Five."

Nursultan Nazarbaev, the President of Kazakhstan, warned about the threat of the fighters incursion into the territory of Uzbekistan. In his speech during the summit of Turkish-speaking countries that was held in Azerbaijan he said that he had information about these plans of extremists. Nazarbaev also said that such a situation would seriously threaten the security of the region and that "any action against Uzbekistan will be considered as an action against Kazakhstan."

Certain steps on preventing the threatening danger were undertaken on regional level. Thus, the heads of the militia departments of Osh region of Kyrgyzstan as well as Fergana, Namangan, and Andijan regions of Uzbekistan adopted a plan of joint actions to guarantee public order in the region. Those actions were related to the cooperation between militia agencies on prevention of smuggled arms, drugs, and banned religious and extremist literature.

Rapprochement of Uzbekistan and Russia that started several months ago is viewed by President Islam Karimov as one of the main guarantees of preservation of stability in the Central-Asian region. This rapprochement was confirmed in April by the visit to Tashkent of Sergey Yastrejembskiy, the assistant of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin. Yastrejembskiy has handed in a personal message of Putin to the President of Uzbekistan. The contents of the message were not made public. The only thing that is known is the fact that the conversation between Karimov and Yastrejembskiy covered the issues of joint anti-terrorist actions of Uzbekistan and Russia. Besides, the President of Uzbekistan invited the President of Russia to visit Uzbekistan. The date of this visit will be agreed upon through diplomatic channels.

It is also necessary to add that the authorities of Uzbekistan remember also about the ideological work aimed at creating unfavorable climate for propagating extremist views. Thus, for instance, "Mahallya" newspaper informed about a seminar that was held by Islamic university located in Shaihantaur district of the capital of Uzbekistan. The seminar was dedicated to teaching of Imam-Hatibs, Aksakals, and the heads of self-government institutions of citizens, and its topic was – "Vigilance is the Call of the Present Time».

On April 6 in the residence of the President of Uzbekistan "Oksaroy" there was held a meeting dedicated to the issues of formation of the national ideology. "Among the combats that take place currently in the world, the most severe fight is the one in the sphere of ideology, - according to the report of one of the newspapers, - To win in this fight, very big funds, capabilities, and forces are mobilized. The biggest danger for us results from the fact that in such an environment our youth sometimes is attracted by false ideas. That is why we need as water and air the national idea and the national ideology."

At the same time, some extremists believe that direct armed struggle of religious extremists with the ruling regimes in the Central Asian countries is not to the advantage of the oppositionists. According to some experts, the extremists count mainly on "creeping" Islam revolution in the region. Development of such a revolution would give them an opportunity to come to power in a bloodless manner. From this point of view the recent events in Vabkent when there was captured a group of hostages could be viewed just like a test on the feedback from the authorities of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, in general, according to analysts, the direct armed aggression against the Central Asian countries would lead only to the actual rapprochement of CIS countries, with Russia obtaining the dominating position. Fighters will not be capable of fighting against such a coalition; that is why speculations about their spring incursion are rather groundless.

The very possibility of the armed incursion may be estimated in different ways. The threat of such an incursion is mentioned by mass media rather often to intimidate the population. However, it is necessary to admit that the possibility of such an armed incursion helps the ruling regimes of the Central-Asian countries to hold in their hands the reins of government. Most likely, this is not the last reason among those that led to publication of numerous articles about spring incursion of religious extremists.