| «Shanghai Forum»
-- New Strategic Block?
Even though the second part of July has already come to its
end, still it seems to be worthy of referring to the event
that took place during the first part of the month. The event
is the Summit of so called "Shanghai Five" (further
in the text -- G-5) that was held in Dushanbe on July 5. This
time the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov also participated
in the Summit of the leaders of the countries -- members of
G-5. The presence at the Summit of the leader of Uzbekistan
that formally does not have common border with China (common
border with China is common feature of all the members of
G-5) was explained by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin
who said that it would be impossible to solve the problems
of the region without participation of Uzbekistan.
The President of Uzbekistan was in the focus of attention
during the Summit. This is also proven by the fact that he
was communicating a lot with Vladimir Putin, who "in
general, personally gave much attention to his Uzbek colleague,
spoke to the latter on his way from the meeting attended only
by the member-countries’ leaders to the enlarged session.
Vladimir Putin was standing next to Islam Karimov at the final
press-conference." As it was proposed by Islam Karimov
the number of members of "Shanghai Five" was increased
through including Uzbekistan, and the new entity was titled
"Shanghai Forum" (the name was proposed by the President
of Tajikistan Emomaly Rakhmonov).
It is possible to judge how important is the new alliance
for Tashkent by the fact that the President of Uzbekistan
preferred to attend the Summit in Dushanbe instead of attending
the meeting with the new General Secretary of NATO George
Robertson. "Islam Karimov, - "Nezavisimaya gazeta"
writes, - considered it to be more important on that day to
be closer to the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzstan,
and Tajikistan and to negotiate with them the issues that
were rather important for Uzbekistan. These were the issues
related to security in the region, including international
terrorism, religious and political extremism, separatism,
and common struggle against drugs dealers and illegal arms
trade." Whereas, the General Secretary of NATO had an
opportunity to meet only with the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan
Utkir Sultanov, defense minister Yuriy Agzamov, and the minister
on emergency states Kosimov. It is necessary to mention also
that during the previous visits to Uzbekistan of top representatives
of NATO in 1996 and 1997 Islam Karimov always met with them.
In his interview to the correspondent of "Ozodlik"
radio station G. Robertson underlined that "joining a
certain union, signing certain agreements in the sphere of
security is the personal choice of each country; and the extent
to which cooperation with the block will be improved depends
also on the will of the Central Asian states." At the
same time, according to Robertson, "NATO wants the Central
Asian states to participate on a larger scale in the program
of cooperation."
With this regard it is necessary to provide some information
about the evolution of the purposes and objectives of G-5.
The Agreement on increasing the level of trust in the military
sphere on the border territories that initiated establishment
of "Shanghai Five" was signed on April 26 in Shanghai
City. During the next Summit that took place in Moscow in
1997 there was signed an Agreement on reduction of military
forces on the common borders of the states members of G-5.
As a result of the Summits in Almaty (1998) and Bishkek (1999)
there were approved the documents regarding struggle against
smuggling of drugs and against organized crime, on establishing
strategic cooperation in economic sphere, including the one
on restoration of the Great Silk Rout. Thus, before Summit-2000
in Dushanbe the relations between the member states of G-5
did not go out the framework of their territorial or economic
interests.
At the same time, in Russia, most likely they have far going
plans regarding the activities of G-5. Thus, on the eve of
the visit to the Central Asia of the Secretary of State of
the USA Madeleine Albright, the ministry of defense of Russia
announced that Russia would want to see Uzbekistan as another
member country of "Shanghai Five." Besides, the
plans on increasing the number of members of G-5 include also
the possibility that such countries as India, Iran, and Mongolia
could also enter it. Recently the director of the department
on international cooperation of the ministry of defense of
Russia, general Leonid Ivashov, stated that Russia, China,
and India have common purposes, and as a result, they are
"ideological allies," and "Shanghai Five"
may become an interesting and effective security system for
the Central Asia."
It is necessary to review the change in the focus in cooperation
between the states members of "Shanghai Forum" taking
into consideration the above statements and plans. Thus, in
Dushanbe the agenda included such issues as regulating the
situation in Afghanistan and establishing an effective system
of regional security. Besides, China and Russia both expressed
their concern with regard to the fact that the USA were going
to create the national system of anti-missile defense of the
USA. With this regard during the Summit it was considered
to be expedient to preserve 1997 year Agreement on anti-missile
defense. The leaders of G-5 member countries underlined that
nowadays their group would have a serious influence not only
in the region, but also in the world. The present members
of G-5 signed the final declaration that stated that it would
be intolerable to allow to interfere with the internal affairs
of other countries "under the excuse of humanitarian
intervention and human rights protection." The last statement
most likely supports the actions of Russia in Chechnya and
also condemned the interference of NATO in Kosovo.
What is the basis for formation of the new strategic block?
Most likely, all the countries that are its members have their
own long-term plans. The main economic objective of China
is the search for the sources of energy that could become
alternatives allowing to solve the problem of the current
dependence of the country on coal. The other economic objective
is further expansion to the consumer markets of the Central
Asian countries and Russia. The main political objective is
to slow down the separatism tendency in Xinjiang-Uyghur autonomous
district that is rich in natural resources, in particular,
oil.
What are the objectives of Russia that is actively trying
to increase the number of member states of G-5? Firstly, the
actions of Russia in this strategic block are quite in line
with the new policy of the country. This policy is characterized
by cooling of the relations with the Western countries as
well as by the attempts to gather its former friends. With
this regard, it is just enough to recall the recent strict
declarations made by the minister of foreign affairs of Russia
Igor Ivanov. These remarks were addressed to those who could
have negative attitude towards the reviving contacts between
Moscow and Libya. Secondly, Russia is trying at least partially
to get back its lost positions in the Central Asian region.
This could be achieved through restoring its former influence.
As a result, Russia could get an access to the mineral resources
and markets of the Central Asian states. Thirdly, through
increasing the number of member countries of G-5 by including
into it India and in future, probably also Iran, Russia wants
to balance the dominating position currently hold by China.
Finally, what are the advantages of the fact that Uzbekistan
has joined G-5? The initiative of Russia on including Uzbekistan
into "Shanghai Forum" is symbolic at least because
of the fact that it changes the basis of the block formation
(instead of common borders -- common regional and global interests).
Special relations between Vladimir Putin and Islam Karimov
during the Summit demonstrated through whom most likely Moscow
was going to carry out its policy in the Central Asia. The
attention paid by the President of Russia to the President
of Uzbekistan could be caused also by the fact that from 1990th
the Uzbek leader was meeting Chinese leaders more often than
anybody else except for the leaders of CIS countries.
Deteriorating economic situation and fear of destabilization
force the authorities of Uzbekistan not only to search actively
for both outside (Afghan Talibs) and inside (religious fanatics,
vahhabbits) enemies, but also try to get support from the
powers that be. As it turned out recently, Uzbekistan can
hardly rely on support from the USA and NATO. This can be
explained by the fact that there is a big geographical distance
between them and Uzbekistan. Besides, there are also some
problems of humanitarian nature (in exchange for the support
the western allies would demand political liberalization in
Uzbekistan). The fact that Uzbekistan has joined G-5 should
be viewed from this point of view. The support that can be
obtained from such a powerful block may become a strong argument
in preserving stability that is the keystone of the policy
carried out by the authorities of Uzbekistan.
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