Uzbekistan after the Terrorist Attacks in the USA: Between the Threat from the South and Pressure from the North

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 and proclaiming Osama bin Laden the main suspect and Afghanistan a stronghold of the terrorist number one, the countries of Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan, are facing a difficult choice. This choice implies how, on the one hand, to satisfy claims of the most powerful players on the Central Asian geopolitical arena, i. e., the raging United States and Russia biding its time, and, on the other hand, to protect oneself in the future from potential threats of one's southern neighbor - the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The fact that in the light of America's imminent military operation in Afghanistan Uzbekistan becomes one of the key countries in the region can explain the apprehensive position of the Uzbek government.

Already on the day following the terrorist attacks the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov expressed sympathy to the American people in the letter addressed to George Bush, saying, "We resolutely condemn the barbarian action of the terrorists and we are convinced that those who are responsible will be found and punished. At this dramatic moment we become increasingly conscious of the importance to unite our efforts in countering this terrible evil, terrorism. Mr. President, Uzbekistan once again confirms its resolution to continue its active cooperation with the United States in fighting this common threat" (1). On 13 September the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan made a statement to remind that it was Uzbekistan that had been the first among the UN member countries to put forward the initiative of setting up an International Anti-Terrorist Center, which, unfortunately, had not been further developed. The statement further said that in the light of the recent events, "Uzbekistan considers its duty to address the UN Secretary General with proposal to take effective and immediate action to establish an International Anti-Terrorist Center" (2).

Since then the events began to develop catastrophically fast, as the US authorities unambiguously argued for an instant and powerful revenge against terrorists and countries supporting them. After President Bush received support of the American people and the Congress, and the Taleban threatened to take vengeance on any contiguous country that provides its territory and airspace to help the United States (3), Uzbekistan faced with the problem of identifying its position in this situation. It has become clear that the establishment of a new entity, the International Anti-Terrorist Center, alone will not solve the problem, and now the whole point is a threat of a large-scale regional military conflict. In a situation like this Uzbekistan is required to make an unambiguous decision and take either of the two sides involved in the confrontation. It appears that this choice is not going to be simple, because besides the United States, there is another player traditionally present in Central Asian political arena - Russia which is taking its time deciding its position. On September 18 the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Vladimir Rushailo arrived in Kazakhstan to hold a meeting with the President Nursultan Nazarbaev. During the meeting it was emphasized that "some countries and international organizations in discussing the issue of combating international terrorism often get carried away with questions about inadequacy of using force and human rights". "Now we can see what consequences this has led to", said Rushailo (4). Clearly, these words transparently implied that the earlier criticism of the Russia's operations in Chechnya expressed by the European countries and the USA had been erroneous. Rushailo is also to meet with other Central Asian leaders.

Russia's activism is apparently caused by the ambiguity of the situation. On the other hand, Russia cannot but support the America's desire to avenge, because any other attitude would be misunderstood and not well received by most Western countries. On the other hand, the prospects of providing the United States with a beachhead in Central Asia, going as far as setting up permanent military bases in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, carry the risk for Russia to completely loose its influence in the region. It is, probably, no accident that the LDPR [Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia] faction in the Russia's Gosudarstvennaya Duma [the Parliament] adopted an extremely anti-American position demanding that "the Taleban, facing this complicated situation, be supported", and its leader, Vladimir Zhirinovskii openly declared that in this conflict Russia must take "the side of Muslims, not America" (5). Launching such ideas into public circulation through the LDPR, the Russian authorities, probably, want to see how these ides resound.

It should be noted that a year ago the Uzbek leadership's attitude toward the Taleban government was quite positive. At that time President Karimov spoke of the Taleban as of the force that might give Afghanistan so long-awaited peace and stability; Russian media, ceaselessly talking about threat coming from the new Afghan regime, were accused of "trying to create panic among the region's population and give the international community a distorted picture of the local events" (6). Also, just over a year ago Russia tested the public reaction to the idea of potential "preventive strikes" aimed at the terrorist centers in Afghanistan; the ides was voiced by the Assistant to the Russian President Sergei Yastrzhembskii (7) and caused a tide of criticism in the Uzbek media.

Therefore, reaction to the global situation after the terrorist attacks in the USA and unbending resoluteness of the Pres. Bush's administration to punish the terrorists and countries supporting them - Afghanistan in the first place - has turned out to be rather ambivalent for Central Asian countries and Russia. Russia, whose attitude toward the Taleban was so resolute just over a year ago, is now biding its time, waiting, taking consultation with the leaders of the Central Asian states and is prepared only "to share information" with the US. On the contrary, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan which one year ago were loyal to the Taleban, are now almost ready to provide their territory and airspace for retaliation strikes against Afghanistan.

A split in the Russian Parliament over the issue of military operation in Afghanistan, as well as the temporizing position of Russia explicitly demonstrate the ambivalence of the situation. Russia cannot but join the justified anger of the United States, but it also fears to loose what has been left of its influence in Central Asia. Whereas Uzbekistan, seeking to protect itself from both the future threat from the South and Russia trying to assert itself in the region, has also found itself in the ambiguous situation. By allowing the American to permanently station on its territory (in the form of military bases), Uzbekistan risks to acquire a serious enemy - Russia. By not allowing the United States to use its territory and airspace, Uzbekistan risks to loose financial and political support of America in the future. This is what accounts for a pause held by the Uzbek government in what seems to be an obvious matter - helping the USA. Unless the Unites States give up the idea of retaliation, sooner or later this choice must be made. And it appears that this choice will not be in favor of Russia.

Footnotes
(1)"Pravda Vostoka", 14 September, 2001.
(2) Ibid.
(3) Khabar Television, Almaty, in Kazakh, 17 September, 2001 - In: BBC Monitoring, 17 September, 2001.
(4) Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency, Almaty, in Russian, 18 September, 2001. - In: BBC Monitoring, 18 September, 2001.
(5) Television Channel TV-6, Moscow, Russia. The news program "Seychas", 20 September, 2001.
(6) "Narodnoe slovo", 28 September, 2000.
(7) "Commersant Daily", 25 May, 2000.