Russian hydrocarbons giant Lukoil is upping gas production in Uzbekistan. But as that gas is shipped abroad, local shortages are prompting Uzbek consumers to double their intake of dirty coal.
The private Uzdaily.uz website reported this week that Lukoil boosted gas production to about 4.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2012, up from 2.6 bcm the year before. Output at the Khauzak-Shady-Kandym-Kungrad field jumped by 24.2 percent and production at Gissar, which started operating in late 2011, reached almost 1 bcm.
Uzdaily.uz said Lukoil plans to extract 4.4 bcm this year, 5.2 bcm next year and 8.2 bcm in 2015. Uzbekistan's total gas production stayed roughly level at 62.9 bcm in 2012, according to government stats cited by RIA Novosti.
One might think all this gas would help ease Uzbekistan’s chronic energy shortfalls. But growing gas exports seem to be contributing to widespread shortages and an increasing reliance on coal.
Citing a source at the state-run Uzbek Coal company, Tashkent’s mildly critical independent Novyy Vek weekly reports that, across the country, residents doubled coal consumption last year. Uzbek Coal projects consumption to jump by almost 300 percent to 2.4 million metric tons by 2020. Uzbekistan produced about 3.9 million metric tons of coal in 2012.
Energy exports from Uzbekistan jumped in value by 81 percent last year, new figures show, thanks in part to a new pipeline to China. But as Tashkent enjoys the windfall, the vast majority of Uzbeks continue to face gas, electricity and heat shortages.
According to the State Statistics Committee, gas and other energy exports were worth $5.03 billion in 2012. That’s an increase of 81 percent over 2011, when the country exported $2.78 billion worth of energy products, mostly hydrocarbons. Citing government statistics, Uzdaily.uz reports that energy accounted for 35.3 percent of Uzbekistan’s total exports in 2012, up from 18.5 percent in 2011.
Last year, Uzbekistan joined a Turkmenistan-to-China pipeline that had opened in 2010 and, in August, started pumping China-bound gas for the first time. The pipeline was expected to export up to 4 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Uzbek gas to China by the end 2012 and 10 bcm this year.
The exports are sparking some resentment in Uzbekistan, however, as they negatively impact domestic supplies. Net output from Uzbekistan’s aging wells also appears to be falling. Local reports suggest output of oil and gas condensate in 2012 decreased by 11.6 percent year-on-year to 3.2 million metric tons and gas production by 0.2 percent year-on-year to 62.9 bcm.
If there is one country in Central Asia that might expect to be spared electricity woes, it should be Turkmenistan.
But a failure at a power plant in the eastern town of Mary over the New Year holiday has highlighted another area where reforms are urgently needed. The late-December failure knocked out half the plant’s capacity, leaving many in Turkmenistan’s eastern provinces without electricity. In Mary, the country’s fourth-largest city, power was provided only intermittently over a three-day period.
In the village of Farab, which lies just across the border from Bukhara, in Uzbekistan, local people prepared for the New Year without electricity, household gas or heating.
“Since a lot of kindergartens and schools weren’t heated, the children had to stay home, which people warmed with diesel-powered heaters,” said Farab resident Nasiba. “People were cooking in the street, some with firewood, some with small kerosene stoves, and the gas supply was so weak it took hours even to boil a kettle.”
The Mary power plant also creates export electricity for neighbors Afghanistan and Iran.
Afghanistan’s official Bakhtar news agency reported on a disruption in supplies to Herat Province in western Afghanistan, which, it said on January 2, had lasted two weeks already.
The crisis has caused heads to roll. Before the New Year, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov severely reprimanded the energy minister and fired the deputy head of the emergency situations committee.
On January 2, Berdymukhamedov fired Mary power plant chief Altymyrat Gurbangeldiyev. At the same government meeting, he instructed Energy Minister Myrat Artykov to travel to Mary to take all necessary measures to solve the issues. Artykov promised prompt action.
The blackouts usually start this time of year. As the temperature drops and the days get shorter, Central Asia’s aging energy infrastructure struggles to keep up, leaving residents cold and in the dark.
When the region was managed by Moscow and was not divided by international borders, upstream, water-rich Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan would produce hydropower in the summer, and receive gas from downstream Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the winter. The five independent countries still trade, begrudgingly. But as they bicker, the system is falling apart.
Kazakhstan is again talking about withdrawing from the system altogether, Business New Europe reports, blaming Uzbekistan for deviously siphoning off electricity from the regional grid. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are experiencing vast shortages. From BNE:
Uzbekistan has introduced rolling electricity blackouts across the country, with the power turned off for one or two hours a day in Tashkent and until 6pm in other cities. Rural areas are receiving no electricity at all, and many towns have no heating. In addition to the electricity shortage, a lack of gasoline has resulted in mile-long queues at petrol stations, and cutbacks to public transport.
Kyrgyzstan is also struggling to supply its population with heat and electricity, which has caused the country to cut its electricity exports to both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan cut electricity generation in September to conserve water in its reservoirs, resulting in a fall in electricity exports of over 1bn kWh to 1.5bn kWh.
The start of the heating season has put further pressure on Kyrgyzstan's energy sector, with gas imports from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan having been cut due to the debts run up by the struggling government.
The movers and shakers of the global oil and gas industry, currently in Astana for a trade conference, now have no reason to fear Kazakhstan might go green on them.
President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s son-in-law, Timur Kulibayev, has pointed out that he’s prioritizing short-term profit over long-term environmental concerns. Speaking at a press conference at the Kazenergy Eurasian Forum on October 2, Kulibayev announced that Kazakhstan will continue to exploit its vast hydrocarbon resources rather than develop alternative energy supplies.
This is bad news for the green brigade, of course, but not all is lost. Kulibayev, who is an influential figure in the country's energy sector, didn’t say he’d never consider renewable energy. He added that Kazakhstan would wait for the cost of alternatives like wind and solar power to become more affordable before getting too committed.
Some might find the announcement confusing, since the trade body Kulibayev heads -- the Kazenergy Association -- promises, on its website, that it is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and to the “realization of the Kyoto Protocol and post-Kyoto agreements.”
Many Tajiks will consider it a gut punch: At the end of another winter of power shortages, the impoverished country’s state electricity company has said it will raise prices 20 percent.
The announcement came as authorities further restricted electricity supplies in some rural regions to less than three hours a day, reports Asia-Plus. Tajikistan produces most of its electricity through a network of hydropower plants; in late winter, when rivers and reservoirs are low, the turbines are unable to generate nearly enough to meet demand.
In a March 12 statement, the opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) slammed the tariff increase, which is scheduled to begin April 1, for hurting a population already in crisis, reports Avesta. The World Bank had long urged price increases to shore up the dilapidated energy sector, but the IRPT said government officials selectively implement foreign recommendations when they serve those in the highest places, but do not care for advice concerning other problems such as political reform.
"There is no doubt that in the course of reforms in this sector changes in electricity tariffs take place sometimes. However, the authorities must pursue a pricing policy that takes into account the conditions in which people live," said the statement.
"The implementation of these recommendations is unfounded, as numerous other recommendations of international organizations on holding transparent elections, protecting human rights and conducting political reforms go ignored for decades.”
Emomali Rakhmon likes dazzling figures: the height of Tajikistan’s newest flagpole; the record-breaking weight of the latest cotton harvest; and the number of small hydroelectric power projects popping up around his country.
Last month, the Tajik president boasted that 250 small- and medium-sized hydropower plants have opened “in recent years” and another 190 are on their way, the state-run Khovar news agency quoted him as saying. In fact, 23 have been built so far in 2011, according to government figures released last week.
These figures may help ease the pain of earlier-than-normal electricity rationing. In September, authorities announced rolling blackouts, not only for remote areas, but also for Dushanbe, the capital. The blackouts are common in winter, when water levels drop in rivers, leaving some areas with only 2-4 hours of electricity per day. But they usually start in October or November.
Twenty years of neglect have left Kyrgyzstan’s energy system in desperate shape. But just how bad could it be? A new report quantifies the gloom: Simply plugging the holes and getting the existing equipment into reliable shape will cost between $1.5 and $2.1 billion, or up to 46 percent of GDP, says a study sponsored by the US government’s development wing, USAID. Without urgent attention, the country could be plunged into darkness for months -- energy experts who have examined the detailed findings say -- and Bishkek could lose its heating.
The findings, compiled at the Energy Ministry’s behest, detail deterioration in a sector where most facilities -- generation plants, transmission lines, and distribution systems -- are 30-40 years old “and have passed the end of their economic lives.” Poor management and the political challenge of raising energy tariffs to sustainable levels have left the entire sector operating at a loss.