A prolonged political standoff developing in Georgia following disputed election
“Election forensics … consistent with poorly conducted” voting process – pollster

Georgia appears headed for a potentially protracted political crisis. The incumbent Georgian Dream party, bankrolled by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, is claiming a convincing victory in the country’s October 26 parliamentary elections, while an array of opposition forces and observers insist the results were rigged.
A massive crowd turned out to protest the election results on October 28, and fresh protests are likely as opposition parties and local election watchdogs are gathering evidence of vote-rigging. They are demanding an international investigation into the alleged fraud, saying they intend to fight the official results to the end.
One relatively well-documented and described trend that will be scrutinized is the apparent coercion by Georgian Dream of rural and socially vulnerable voters who are dependent on the government for income.
Polling analyst David Sichinava made a correlation between voting districts and poverty levels in those districts, which showed that officially reported support for the Georgian Dream is the highest in the poorest areas. Based on official results, residents of three poor, ethnic minority-dominated precincts appear to be simply overflowing with the support for the establishment, giving Georgian Dream over 80 percent and, in one case, close to 90 percent of votes.
There are other trends in the vote-count that raise pollsters’ eyebrows. “Georgian Dream is consistently getting more votes the higher the turnout gets – this does not normally happen in an election,” commented polling data analyst Dustin Gilbreath. “The election forensics, or statistical tests for potential fraud, are consistent with poorly conducted election. They are not definitive but do require further investigation of why we see the statistical anomalies.”
International observers have yet to publish detailed findings, but their early assessments were infused with criticism. “Given the cases of vote-buying, widespread climate of pressure and party-organized intimidation before and during the elections, especially in rural areas, … we express our concerns about the electoral conditions, in particular the uneven playing field which undermines trust in the outcome and explains the reactions to the election results,” said Lulian Bulai, representative of the Parliamentary Assembly for the Council of Europe, the continent’s key democracy-monitoring body.
Local watchdogs, volunteer observers and journalists reported cases of ballot-stuffing and “carousel” voting. As they gather the evidence, watchdogs and opposition parties intend to legally challenge the voting results.
Dismissing accusations of stealing the election, Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream party is getting ready to enter the parliament and take up 89 seats. Meanwhile, opposition parties say they will boycott the legislature, refusing to take the remaining 61 seats.
President Salome Zourabichvili, the ceremonial head of state, has refused to give her formal blessing to the new legislature, and has taken on a leadership role in the opposition’s challenge to the election results. “You have not lost the election, the election was stolen from you,” Zourabichvili told protesters during the October 28 protest. “Now is the time to concentrate on protecting our votes in a calm, earnest and steadfast manner.”
Opposition supporters are focusing their ire on Ivanishvili: many see the reclusive billionaire as intent on manipulating Georgian politics for his personal advantage over the nation’s best interests.
“Ivanishvili thinks that this country is his personal vegetable garden, where he can plant anything anywhere and claim that this is what Georgia wants,” one young protester told Eurasianet, making a reference to Ivanishvili’s record of repeated shuffling of government officials and massive trees at his whim.
Scoffing at such allegations, Georgian Dream leaders claim they won fair-and-square and accuse opponents and forces in the European Union and the United States of attempts to stage a revolution in Georgia. Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili said that the opposition wants to turn Georgian into a “banana republic” controlled by the West.
“They say that we are incapable of making our own choice. Instead, aunties and uncles should come from abroad and make the choice for us,” said Papuashvili, commenting on opposition’s demands to do a rerun of the vote, this time with greater oversight from the European Union to prevent meddling from the Georgian authorities.
High-ranking US and EU officials have withheld an endorsement of the election results. Charles Michel, the president of the EU Council, has called for a fast and thorough investigation of the voting process. Sweden went as far as to suspend all cooperation with Georgia over concerns about election fraud and government’s attacks on civil society. Only Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the EU’s gadfly, acknowledged the results as legitimate. Elsewhere, China and Turkey offered their congratulations to Georgian Dream.
Giorgi Lomsadze is a journalist based in Tbilisi, and author of Tamada Tales.
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