A political crisis in the Russian-dominated, separatist entity of Abkhazia has been defused, but the underlying issue that prompted the unrest – legislation that would grant Russians favorable real estate investment privileges – remains unaddressed. In the end, Russia, the territory’s financial sponsor, is likely to end up getting what it wants.

Opponents of the legislative measure to grant Russians insider access to real estate and other investment opportunities occupied the de-facto government’s offices in the Abkhaz capital Sokhumi on November 15, aiming to block passage of the bill. After a more than four-day standoff, the leader of the self-proclaimed republic, Aslan Bzhania, announced his resignation. In return, the protesters ended their occupation of government buildings, and an early election for the leadership of the territory, which broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s amid a civil conflict, was announced.

Abkhazia’s de facto parliament has approved Bzhania’s resignation and on November 21 was still debating on a date for a snap election. 

The drama may end up being a case of much ado about nothing. Bzhania, who appears to retain Russia’s backing, has already announced his intention to run again. It remains unclear who opposition leaders will nominate as their candidate, or if they will opt to unify around a single candidate.

The controversial Russian investment bill that was to have been debated and, likely, finalized on November 15, remains on the table, its fate uncertain. The agreement that defused the political crisis between the de facto government and its opposition did not address the fate of the bill.

The Kremlin is unlikely to alter its intentions to dominate Abkhazia’s real estate market, even if Bzhania opponents come to power. According to sources in the Russian government, Moscow does not view Bzhania critics as opponents of the Kremlin’s wishes, the independent news outlet Vyorstka (Вёрстка) reported.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on November 18 emphasized Russia’s support for the swift normalization of the situation in Abkhazia, expressing hope it would remain within constitutional boundaries. When asked about the impact of the protests on bilateral relations, Peskov affirmed that ties with Abkhazia are “a very important priority of our foreign policy.”