The annual fighting season in Afghanistan is coming to a close with the opposing sides deadlocked. Their inability to achieve a breakthrough deepens existing dilemmas concerning the international community's quest to foster stable government in Afghanistan. Specifically, the international community is reevaluating whether outside military assistance can promote stability, or prolong the conflict.

The stalemate comes as a disappointment to both the Taliban, which has counted on significant action before the onset of winter, as well as Northern Alliance warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud, who has been desperate to retake territory, especially the strategic town of Taloqan.

The most recent clashes along the border between the Ghor and Badghis provinces on September 2 resulted in only a few dozen casualties and no transfer of territory. Additional reports on September 4 of Taliban air attacks on opposition positions near Bagram and in Kapisa province were inconclusive. This is typical of the sporadic and generally unimpressive military action that has taken place throughout the summer.

Fighting began in May, and a new round of massacres by the Taliban was reported in Yakawlang and northern Bamian by June, along with the widespread destruction of dwellings and livestock. Skirmishes also took place in Herat, as well as near Taloqan and other parts of Takhar province. The pace picked up in mid-July and continued into August: on August 19, opposition forces allegedly launched a rocket attack during Independence Day celebrations in Kabul. The next day Taliban forces bombarded opposition areas in Kapisa and Parwan provinces, as well as the Alinegar district in Laghman province and Taywara in Ghor. During the next week intense battles took place near Bagram and in the Chal district of Takhar. According to most accounts, Taliban forces held the upper hand in the majority of incidents.

Massoud's forces still control about 10 percent of the country, mainly in the Panshir Valley and remote Badakshan, but they have not been able to hold onto gains elsewhere with the exception of a few pockets north of Kabul. Other commanders, notably Ismail Khan in the west, have made some attempt to organize and coordinate the opposition, but with little yet to show for it on the ground. Massoud has developed a reputation of invincibility, but, at best, he and his allies only succeed in keeping the Taliban on edge year after year.

In mid-July, unconfirmed reports began circulating that the United States was becoming more active in anti-Taliban military efforts. One Iranian source even reported in August that US troops had arrived in Tajikistan in preparation for a cross-border punitive action against Taliban forces. Tajik officials in August denied that American soldiers had arrived to participate in military operations in Afghanistan.

Until now, the United States has kept its distance from the ongoing turmoil in Afghanistan. The top priority for the US government has not changed since 1998 – elimination of the threat posed by Afghan-based Saudi terrorist, Osama bin Laden. It seems, however, that US tactics for containing bin Laden are shifting. Washington now appears to realize that a good way to attack bin Laden is to disrupt his base of operations. The ouster of the Taliban could potentially accomplish this goal.

But some experts question the practicality of tactical military assistance. The results of this summer's fighting suggest that continuing attempts in the near-to-medium term to achieve a military breakthrough would not have high chances of success. A proxy war waged against only one element of instability – namely the Taliban – does not guarantee an end to all war in Afghanistan, or in the wider region. Meanwhile, it is far from certain that Massoud and his allies, if they could regain power in Kabul, would be able to restore order over the entire country.

Just as the United States is reportedly stepping up military assistance operations, other members of the international community are exploring alternate stabilization ideas. On 22 August, for example, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called for a new, comprehensive approach to ending the Afghan war.

It should then come as no surprise that the search for an alternative has begun. Coercion has only made the Taliban more hostile and/or extortionate -- threatening to close Afghan airspace, expelling and/or arresting aid workers, and so forth.