At the recently concluded NATO summit in Washington, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken portrayed the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process as nearing a conclusion. But getting to yes isn’t a given. A formidable obstacle concerning Nagorno-Karabakh must still be resolved before an agreement can be signed. 

Both sides are currently playing hard-to-get, not wanting to appear too eager to make a concession. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev were widely expected to hold direct talks in London on July 18 on the sidelines of a summit of the European Political Community, but the meeting never took place. Both sides accused the other of scuttling the discussion. 

Pashinyan and Aliyev most recently met in Berlin in February, a meeting mediated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. That occasion marked the first encounter between the two since Azerbaijan’s full takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. At that time, the two sides seemed far apart on a peace pact. But in the spring, Pashinyan’s government achieved a breakthrough by agreeing to transfer four villages in disputed border areas to Azerbaijan. Since then, both sides have voiced interest in finalizing a peace pact.

Aliyev, speaking at a media forum in the Karabakh town of Shusha on July 20, indicated that up to 90 percent of the draft peace treaty text has been agreed upon. At the same time, settling on the final 10 percent may prove difficult. Azerbaijan has two demands concerning Karabakh that are problematic for Armenia.

One condition set by Aliyev is Armenia’s formal agreement to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, the entity that has for years overseen the peace process, but which has been effectively a non-factor recently. Aliyev has long accused the Minsk Group of bias in favor of Armenia. “The Minsk Group has been dysfunctional for many months, and maybe already a couple of years,” Aliyev said during the Shusha forum.

The second condition is more formidable: Azerbaijan wants Yerevan to alter a provision in the Armenian constitution’s preamble that considers Karabakh as part of Armenia. The provision as currently written “clearly poses a territorial threat to Azerbaijan, because it deals with the unification of so-called Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia,” Aliyev said.

While adopting a tough line on the constitutional provision, Aliyev’s administration extended an invitation to Armenia to attend a UN climate conference (COP29), to be held in Baku in November. An administration representative described the invitation as an “illustration of goodwill.” Yerevan hasn’t yet disclosed whether Armenian officials will attend COP29. 

Baku-based analyst Shujaat Ahmadzade believes the constitutional-change demand represents a potential deal breaker. “There seem to be two – one directly related, one not – issues that act as a barrier: the first is about the modalities for ensuring Azerbaijan’s connection with Nakhchivan, and the other is about so-called “constitutional amendments,” Ahmadzade explained.

An Armenian Foreign Ministry representative told RFE/RL on 25 July that the government is working on a response to the Azerbaijani position. Pashinyan has initiated internal discussions on amending the constitution, triggering speculation that his government may be looking for a way to address Aliyev’s demands. According to Daniel Ioannisyan, a member of the working group considering constitutional amendments, any changes are not expected to be finalized until 2027 at the earliest. He added that a change in the preamble’s wording is not being contemplated at this time. Edmon Marukyan, a former ally of Pashinyan and an ex-ambassador-at-large of Armenia, told RFE/RL that Armenians want clarity on several unresolved issues, including the process concerning the return of prisoners of war.