Armenia: Nagorno-Karabakh Independence Unlikely to Win Parliamentary Approval
Armenia’s parliament is set to consider a bill on recognizing the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state. Just about everyone in Yerevan supports the bill’s intent, but few MPs are willing to vote for the measure at this time.
The bill, sponsored by the opposition Heritage Party, is expected to come up for a vote during parliament’s October 25-29 session. First submitted in 2007, the bill is intended to define Armenia’s “rights and responsibilities in strengthening” the disputed region’s security, as well as determine “the national interests and the state policy of Armenia, and Armenia’s participation in post-conflict rehabilitation activities.”
In an October 5 speech to parliament, Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovannisian called on MPs to make the bill a “national project,” calling for a national debate on whether now is the “right moment both in terms of the content and the timing” to recognize Karabakh’s independence from Azerbaijan.
Many Armenians already tend to consider Karabakh to be an independent country, and usually refer to its de facto officials as representatives of a sovereign state. In addition, the Armenian government provides extensive financial and military support to the territory. Even so, the three parties that comprise the governing coalition -- The Republican Party of Armenia, Prosperous Party of Armenia and the Rule of Law Party – have stated they will oppose the recognition bill if it comes up for a vote. Given that these three parties control a majority of the National Assembly’s 131 seats, the bill appears doomed to defeat.
A vote by parliament to recognize Karabakh as an independent country would disrupt the “logic” of the 15-year negotiations with Azerbaijan about the territory, overseen by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said Republican Party of Armenia Deputy Chair Razmik Zohrabian. The Republican Party chair, President Serzh Sargsyan, is a Karabakh native who once commanded the territory’s defense forces.
One political party represented in parliament that supports the bill, the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation, has expressed concern about the measure’s timing. Although the party’s 16-member parliamentary faction plans to vote for Karabakh recognition, the faction’s head, Vahan Hovhannisian, has stated a preference for the bill to be delayed until a point in time when it could receive the unanimous support of legislators.
The Heritage Party’s Raffi Hovannisian indignantly rejects criticism that the measure could undermine Karabakh peace process, but one Yerevan political analyst agrees that recognizing the breakaway region would only complicate Armenia’s relations with the international community. “I support such a bill. … But the choice of the right moment is crucial: if it's the right moment we will reap dividends, otherwise we'll suffer losses,” said Yerevand Bozoian. An attempt by Azerbaijan to regain Karabakh by military force could constitute one such “right moment,” Bozoian continued. An economic boom in Armenia that makes the country “superior to Azerbaijan” in financial muscle could be another, he added. “For now, we are not at that stage.”
Heritage Party representatives scoff at the notion of waiting for an opportune time. “If we listen to analysts, the right moment will never come,” said Stepan Safarian, head of the party’s seven-member parliamentary faction. “The Nagorno Karabakh Republic will mark its 20th anniversary next year; do you think the right moment never came during these 20 years?”
Political analyst Suren Surenyants cautioned that unilateral Karabakh recognition might end up damaging Armenia’s interests, saying approval of the bill would cause Armenia to withdraw from the Karabakh peace process. “In its turn, this would cause isolation, and the country would face new challenges,” Surenyants said.
Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in Yerevan.
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