Armenian environmental activists warn that humans may not be the only ones to suffer from an expected gas price hike this year. Armenia’s estimated 340,000 hectares of woodland could suffer as well, as Armenians scramble to find wood to heat their homes.

Russian energy giant Gazprom, which controls gas exports to Armenia, has already pledged to increase gas prices this year to “market rates.” The current average price for Gazprom gas exported to Europe is $300 per thousand cubic meters. Armenia currently pays $180 per thousand cubic meters.

At least publicly, there appears to be little inclination on Gazprom’s side to reconsider. In a January 18 interview with Der Spiegel, Gazprom Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller stated that “We've agreed with Armenia that, in the future, they should buy our gas at market rates.”

Armenia’s talks with Gazprom about the price increase are expected to conclude in late February.

That looming deadline has prompted Armenians to look not only at their wallets, but, also, to whatever trees lie within easy reach for firewood. Forests in the northern regions of Tavush and Lori and the southern region of Syunik are among the worst affected, environmental activists say.

Forests account for roughly 11 percent of Armenia’s territory of 29,743 square kilometers, according to the Ministry of Environmental Protection.

Environmentalists believe, however, that that figure conceals the real scope of the country’s woodlands, and warn that any increased need to use firewood to heat homes will make for a “dangerous” situation.

Many Armenians, villagers and townfolk alike, insist, however, that they have little alternative choice.

Rafik Hovhannisian, a 67-year-old pensioner from the northern city of Vanadzor, says that his and his wife’s pensions are not enough to cover the 25,000 drams (about $68) per month cost of heating their house with gas. Instead, they opted to “go back in time” and use their wood-stove.

“If we heated the house using gas at the current tariffs, we would starve; and it’s like in the cold and dark years [the 1990s] now,” said Hovhannisian, with a smile.

Many Armenians appear to be making a similar decision. Armenia’s national gas company, Hayrusgazard, reports that the amount of gas exported to Armenia from Russia decreased by 11.6 percent in 2010; consumption levels decreased by 18 percent compared with the previous year.

A lack of competition worsens matters. Armenia gets all of its gas from Gazprom. In 2010, the company increased the tariffs for gas exports to Armenia by 17 percent; residential prices subsequently increased by 37.5 percent – from 96 drams (about ¢27) to 132 drams (about ¢37) per cubic meter.

“If things go on like this, I don’t know what to do,” worried 58-year-old pharmacist Varduhi Avanesian from the southern city of Kapan. “We cannot use gas at home, and if the price goes up a little more, we’ll not be able to survive…everybody is in the same situation.”

That trend is not limited to provincial towns; it has also hit Yerevan. But it is at its most intense in rural areas.

Inga Zarafian, head of the non-governmental organization EcoLur, reports that some 15,000 families in the northeastern region of Tavush are now using firewood to heat their homes. “This is already a huge number with regard to tree-cutting,” she said. Such evaluations are largely based on general impressions; the exact number of trees felled, and whether or not that number represents an increase on previous years, has not yet been calculated Nazeli Vardanian, chairperson of the non-governmental organization Armenian Forests, estimates that each rural family uses at least 10-15 cubic meters of firewood in winter. With higher gas prices, that rate of use could triple, she predicted.

“If the gas prices go up this year as well, we will completely lose our forests,” Vardanian claimed. “If we lose the forests, we will lose our country, our waters and soil. The state and society should pay attention to this issue.”

Ministry of Environmental Protection spokesperson Artsrun Pepanian responded that the ministry “supervises” Armenia’s forests once per year; after its annual inspection, the situation in Armenia’s forests will be clear, Pepanian asserted.

Meanwhile, some economists are warning of a mega-body blow to Armenia’s weakened economy if gas prices do reach international market rates. Inflation is expected to reach 9.5 percent in the first six months of 2011; food prices have already soared by more than 15 percent. Recent protests underline that tempers are growing thin.

“High gas prices will influence all branches of the economy, resulting in an increase in the number of disadvantaged people,” commented Tatoil Manasserian, a professor of international business and economics at Yerevan State University. “In this situation, the government must provide targeted support.”

Energy Minister Armen Movsisian on February 15 said that “different regional schemes” could be considered “to alleviate the consequences” of any higher gas prices, but did not elaborate.