Armenia: Smear Tactics Feature Prominently in Early Presidential Election Campaigning
With just under six weeks to go before Armenia's presidential election, the field of candidates is coming into sharper focus. Overall, nine men are expected to battle for the presidency when the campaign season officially gets underway January 21. But most experts believe the race quickly will boil down to a contest between two men incumbent Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian and former president Levon Ter-Petrosian.
The presidential vote is slated for February 19. Sarkisian has long been viewed as the prohibitive favorite to follow outgoing President Robert Kocharian, who is constitutionally barred from running for reelection. The benefits of incumbency are clearly on Sarkisian's side, as his Republican Party won a landslide victory in the May 2007 parliamentary elections. [For additional information see the special feature Armenia: Vote 2007]. Opinion polls have shown Sarkisian to enjoy the support of roughly one-third of potential voters, enough to give him a commanding lead over the other presidential hopefuls. Artur Baghdasarian, the leader of the Orinats Yerkir (Land of Law) Party, and Vahan Hovhannisian, Vice Speaker of the National Assembly representing Dashnaktsutiun (the Armenian Revolutionary Federation), trailed well behind Sarkisian with 13 percent and 6 percent support respectively in the latest poll. Ter-Petrosian was among the six presidential contenders whose polling numbers were running in the low single digits. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Ter-Petrosian served as the first president of post-Soviet Armenia, his tenure stretching from 1991-98. In February of 1998, he was forced to resign amid a severe backlash to his suggestion that Armenia make concessions to Azerbaijan in the still-stalemated peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive]. Ter-Petrosian's successor, Kocharian, has governed since then.
On the surface, judging by the numbers, it would seem that Ter-Petrosian poses no threat to Sarkisian's electoral chances. Yet, it's plainly evident that Sarkisian supporters within the government see the former president as the most formidable opponent in the field. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Ter-Petrosian and his aides, for instance, have been denied access to most television channels. The one notable exception is Yerkir Media TV, which is controlled by the Dashnak party.
At the same time, state-controlled media outlets have provided generous amounts of air time to long-time political enemies of Ter-Petrosian, including Vazgen Manukian, the leader of the National Democratic Party, and Artashes Geghamian, the leader of the National Unity Party.
Privately operated television stations have generally followed the lead of government-controlled channels. Campaign events organized by the Ter-Petrosian camp have received scant media coverage, despite the fact that several rallies have drawn tens of thousands of spectators. The plainly evident media bias prompted two European officials -- Terry Davis, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, and Peter Semneby, the EU's special representative for the South Caucasus to register complaints. [For more information, click here].
If anything, Ter-Petrosian has received even rougher treatment from some print media outlets. For example, the Hayots Ashkharh daily, an officially independent newspaper with a decidedly pro-governmental outlook, splashed two remarkable photo-montages across the front pages of two editions in late December. In one, Ter-Petrosian is depicted as wearing a traditional Turkish fez, a clearly derogatory image given Armenia's long-standing hostility with both Turkey and Azerbaijan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In the second montage, Ter-Petrosian's Yerevan home is depicted as flying a Turkish flag from a pole on its roof. The combined message of the two images was unmistakable: a vote to return Ter-Petrosian to power would be a vote to capitulate in Armenia's ongoing diplomatic struggles with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Even in a fairer political environment, Ter-Petrosian's candidacy would face substantial challenges. Ter-Petrosian managed to generate initial attention for his candidacy with a series of sharp attacks on Kocharian's administration. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The task now will be to transform the disenchantment with the Kocharian administration among a certain segment of the electorate into genuine support for his own political program.
Although about two dozen political parties and civic organizations have endorsed Ter-Petrosian's candidacy -- most of them relatively small in numbers and in influence -- it remains to be seen if he can build an effective organizational network. "He carries the bad heritage of the past
Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.
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