After several months of incremental progress that raised hopes a durable settlement was at hand, the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process appears to have entered another retrograde phase.

Recent comments by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev suggest that Baku has pressed pause on negotiations. In an October 4 speech made in Jabrayil, a city that Azerbaijan regained control of in 2020, Aliyev cautioned Armenia against trying to rearm with the aim of reversing Yerevan’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Let them not forget the history of the Second Karabakh War. Let them not forget how they begged us on their knees for mercy, how they appealed to Russia at the highest level 10 times a day, asking to stop the war,” said Aliyev, referring to the 44-day conflict in 2020, in which Azerbaijani forces recaptured from Armenia most of the territory it had lost during the First Karabakh War, which ended in 1994.

Aliyev’s speech occurred just days after a meeting between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in New York, mediated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Following those discussions both sides pledged to intensify efforts to conclude a peace treaty. 

Aliyev’s speech seemed to back off that pledge, given that it also featured pointed criticism of the United States and Blinken personally. The Azerbaijani leader noted that earlier on October 4, 60 pro-Armenian members of the US Congress had appealed to the US administration to release political prisoners and possibly impose sanctions on Azerbaijan. 

“It is a vile appeal and cannot influence our will,” Aliyev stated. “The policy of hostility against us does not stop.”

“When I looked at this document, I suspected that its author and addressee are the same person, the Secretary of State of the United States,” Aliyev added, implying that Washington was playing a double game by touting peace while pushing for sanctions against Baku. Aliyev also slammed other Western nations, particularly France, which has been a strong backer of Armenia in recent years. 

Armenia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement in response to Aliyev’s speech emphasizing that recent arms acquisitions were solely for defensive purposes. A ministry spokesperson added that Yerevan recognizes the territorial integrity of all neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan. “Yerevan has no aggressive intentions towards any of its neighbors,” the ministry spokesperson said. 

In his speech at the UN General Assembly in late September, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that the peace deal with Azerbaijan was “within reach.” But just days later, and prior to Aliyev’s speech, the prime minister expressed doubts about Baku’s commitment to finalizing a peace treaty. Pashinyan’s seemingly contradictory statements only underscored the zig-zag nature of the peace process.

Following Aliyev’s October 4 speech, Armenian officials asked publicly whether Azerbaijan remained committed to the establish framework for peace, outlined in a document known as the Alma-Ata Declaration. Baku has not yet officially responded. However, Aykhan Hajizade, an Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson, dismissed Armenian assertions that its arms procurement is purely defensive as disingenuous.

Officials in Yerevan have continuously claimed that they are ready to sign a peace treaty based on agreements already reached during negotiations, while setting unresolved issues aside for further discussion at a later date. Baku, for its part, says no deal is possible unless Armenia amends its constitution to unequivocally recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh.