Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev’s surprise rhetorical attack on Armenia is raising doubts that a peace deal between Baku and Yerevan can be reached anytime soon.

Both sides in recent months had given indications that the peace process was making progress and a settlement could be close at hand. But then Aliyev, in a January 7 interview with Azerbaijani journalists, scrambled expectations, launching a verbal broadside against Armenia and its leaders, characterizing the country as a “fascist state.” In all, Aliyev used the term fascist or fascism in connection with Armenia over 10 times during the interview.

“Fascism must be eradicated. It will either be eradicated by Armenia’s leadership or by us. There is no other way,” he stated.

Aliyev’s belligerent comments come at a sensitive time for Azerbaijan. Bilateral relations between Baku and its strongest ally in the region, Russia, have nosedived in recent weeks following the accidental shootdown by Russian air defenses of a civilian Azerbaijani airliner. Concurrently, Armenia of late has taken significant steps to improve its relations with the European Union and United States, bolstering the country’s security position via arms sales and joint exercises.

Armenian officials have been on the strategic defensive since Baku inflicted a decisive defeat on the Armenian military in late 2023 to regain full control of the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Since then, the two sides have engaged in stop-and-go negotiations on a peace treaty. Under the present circumstances, Aliyev’s January 7 remarks may reflect a sense of concern that Baku’s strategic advantage in its dealings with Armenia is eroding or could start to erode soon. 

A hint of concern could be seen in Aliyev’s criticism of Western arms sales to Armenia. “We see that both Armenia itself and its new patrons do not share this goal [peace],” he said. “They are driven by ideas of revenge, and Armenia has become a source of threat to the region.”

During his prolonged attack on Armenia, Aliyev renewed a call for the opening of the so-called Zangezur corridor, a proposed land bridge across Armenian territory connecting Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan exclave over which Baku would enjoy extraterritorial rights. 

Aliyev also blasted perceived enemies in the West, singling out French President Emmanuel Macron and American billionaire philanthropist George Soros, long viewed as the chief architect of so-called “color” revolutions across Eurasia. “The Soros era has ended in America,” Aliyev stated, referring to the pending return to the presidency by Donald Trump. “The Biden administration, in fact, was largely governed by the Soros method of governance.” 

Aliyev spent much of 2024 feuding with US and European leaders. In a certain manner, Aliyev’s aggressive comments during the interview can be seen as a plea for improved relations with the West, especially considering the rapid deterioration of relations with Russia. “Last year was full of disappointments,” Aliyev noted. “The European Union unequivocally took Armenia’s side in the normalization process.”

The Azerbaijani leader made a point of noting the EU is a big consumer of Baku’s natural gas. EU leaders “should approach the situation with sobriety and recognize Azerbaijan as a reliable partner – one that has never acted against Europe or any European country. Azerbaijan has only responded in kind and will continue to do so: good for good and evil for evil, so to speak,” Aliyev said.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan responded to Aliyev’s provocative interview in measured tones, reaffirming his government’s commitment to a peaceful settlement of bilateral differences. “We will remain committed to the strategy of peace and consistently continue the implementation of the peace agenda,” Pashinyan stated. He also called for broad-based public dialogue to address derogatory stereotypes and perceptions that prevail in both states concerning citizens of the other. “The agenda of peace is about discussing, addressing these perceptions,” he noted.

In addition, the Armenian Foreign Ministry defended the country’s right to self-defense, with spokesperson Ani Badalyan stating, “Armenia acquires weapons and equipment solely to exercise its right to self-defense and to protect its citizens.” She reiterated that Armenia harbors no aggressive intentions toward its neighbors.  Azerbaijan’s defense budget in 2025 is projected to be more than double that of Armenia’s.