Armenian opposition leaders have sent feelers to President Robert Kocharian and his allies on a constitutional deal. The initiative could break a lengthy deadlock that has prevented the president from amending Armenia's controversial basic law. At the same time, the opposition's surprise move poses political risks for Kocharian.
Political analysts have differing theories as to why the country's two main opposition groups are now ready to compromise after putting up years of resistance to the constitutional changes. Most analysts interpret the move as either a sign of a softening of the opposition's stance on Kocharian's leadership, or as a ploy designed to undermine Kocharian's credibility.
The Ararutiun (Justice) bloc and the National Unity Party (AMK) indicated on January 19 that they are ready to endorse Kocharian's package of constitutional amendments -- due to be put to a nationwide referendum later this year provided that several changes are made. The opposition's proposals include giving the Armenian parliament a larger role in the formation of the government, and making the mayor of the capital Yerevan an elected official. The opposition also wants to limit the president's authority to appoint and dismiss judges.
The proposals were addressed to leaders of the three parties that are represented in Kocharian's cabinet, and that control the legislature. Leaders of the governing coalition were clearly caught by surprise. Parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian promised to start "consultations" with other majority leaders and deliver their common response by the end of January.
Armenia's post-Soviet constitution, enacted following a reputedly fraudulent referendum in 1995, has long been criticized for vesting too many powers in the presidency at the expense of the legislative and judicial branches. It empowers the president to single-handedly form and dismiss governments, dissolve the National Assembly practically at will and name virtually all judges without parliamentary confirmation.
Constitutional reform was among Kocharian's key promises when he came to power in 1998. It was also one of the conditions for Armenia's accession to the Council of Europe four years ago. Kocharian's first attempt to implement reforms ended in failure when his package of draft amendments fell short of sufficient popular support at a referendum in May 2003.
The opposition urged voters at the time to reject the proposed changes, saying that they would only enhance executive power. Opposition leaders were equally critical of revised amendments jointly drafted by Kocharian and the coalition leaders in the course of the last year. "The un-elected president and the dubiously elected coalition have no right to remodel the constitution of the Republic of Armenia," one of them, Victor Dallakian, declared last August, referring to the hotly disputed presidential and parliamentary elections of 2003. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Armenian authorities, meanwhile, are facing growing pressure from the Council of Europe over constitutional reform. In a resolution adopted last September, the Strasbourg-based organization's Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) urged them to hold another referendum "as soon as possible, and in any event by June 2005 at the latest." The Armenian parliament is expected to start final debates on the issue in March.
The Justice bloc and the AMK said they will suspend their year-long boycott of parliament sessions if the presidential camp agrees to their proposals. Significantly, those proposals reflect the recommendations of the so-called Venice Commission, a Council of Europe body monitoring legal reform in the member states. In an interim report released in December, the commission concluded that the revised amendments represent "a shift in favor of the president" when compared to the initial version of constitutional reform suggested by Kocharian in 2001.
"More significant amendments, especially with respect to the key issue of the balance of powers between the state organs, are necessary," read the report. It noted that the Armenian legislature would remain "subordinated" to the president and play no role in the nomination and dismissal of prime ministers. The Venice Commission also said the presidential authority to appoint and sack Yerevan mayors contradicts not only European standards, but also some provisions of the Armenian constitution.
These recommendations are largely acceptable to at least one of the three governing parties, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF). But it is Kocharian who has a final say on the matter, and it remains unclear if he will agree to curbs on his existing authority.
The opposition hopes that Kocharian will not, according to some observers. In that case, they say, opposition leaders might try to take political advantage, claiming the moral high ground and portraying the president as an inherently undemocratic politician. The Armenian leader's commitment to democracy and rule of law has already been seriously questioned by the West. "If they don't accept [the opposition proposals], we will turn the constitutional referendum into a referendum of confidence in Kocharian," Dallakian warned last week.
No wonder that Hayots Ashkhar, a Yerevan daily staunchly supportive of Kocharian, looked for ulterior motives behind the opposition overtures. In a weekend editorial titled "Political Games," the paper suggested that the opposition is bent on discrediting authorities in the eyes of Europeans. The ruling coalition must therefore be on its guard, it said.
Governing-coalition parties already offered the opposition to jointly work out constitutional amendments last April, in an unsuccessful attempt to stave off anti-Kocharian street protests in Yerevan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. They now say the offer may no longer be in force. "The situation has changed a bit [since April]," said Armen Rustamian, an ARF leader. "So has our mood."
The anticipated constitutional referendum should also finally clarify whether Kocharian would like to stay in power if he completes his second five-year tenure in 2008. The existing constitution bars him from seeking a third term. The draft amendments currently in circulation would not abolish this restriction, but they may still undergo changes before being put to the vote.
Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.
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