Weather specialists are forecasting a hot and dry summer this year in Central Asia, posing a threat to Uzbekistan's cotton crop and Kazakhstan's rice crop. Having suffered severely during the winter because of Tashkent's gas cutoff, Kyrgyzstan now appears less inclined to honor its irrigation commitments with Uzbekistan. During the energy blockade, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Kurmanbek Bakiev warned his Uzbek counterpart several times that Uzbekistan's hard-line stance on the gas cutoff could force a large discharge of water from the Toktogul reservoir, with potentially harmful consequences for Uzbek cotton.

Alarmed by such a development, Uzbek Prime Minister Utkir Sultanov arrived in Bishkek in the middle of February seeking to make a deal. At the time, both sides agreed to stick to their commitments. But on March 6 the general-director of "Kyrgyzenergo," Bakirdin Sartkaziev, revealed that Kyrgyzstan is only willing to provide 750 million cubic meters of water, instead of the previously agreed 2.3 billion cubic meters for irrigation needs.

The head of the Syr-Darya Interstate Water Association, Makhmud Khamitov of Uzbekistan, told the Kazakhstan Today news agency: "The Kyrgyz move could lead to catastrophic results." According to one Kyrgyz estimate, the water shortfall could cause a loss of up to 300,000 tons for Uzbekistan's cotton harvest.

Uzbekistan is the world's second largest exporter and fifth largest producer of cotton. This year Uzbek officials announced plans to double the amount of territory devoted to cotton cultivation. The Kyrgyz announcement on water availability would appear to upend Uzbek cotton expansion plans.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, which is also dependent on Kyrgyz reservoirs, has taken steps to avert a shortfall. On March 6, Kazakhstani and Kyrgyz authorities signed a protocol under which Kazakhstan agreed to settle a $21.5 million debt in order to facilitate negotiations on water supplies. Kazakhstan also promised to supply Kyrgyzstan with fuel and coal. Astana is seeking up to 750 million cubic meters of water for irrigation. A formal agreement could be in place by the end of March.

Since the Soviet Union's collapse, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have often clashed over water.

Uzbekistan, whose irrigation system is totally dependent on water flows from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, promoted a Soviet-style solution, declaring all Central Asian water resources "common wealth." Kyrgyz officials have become increasingly determined to defend their resources. Water disputes in previous years have caused considerable agricultural damage. "Because of Kyrgyzstan's extensive water discharge during the last five years, the total loss for Uzbekistan reached almost $1 billion," one Uzbek expert claimed.

Decisions made this winter will also impact the environment. The lack of water for irrigation likely means that the Aral Sea will continue to shrink, fueling the vicious cycle in which the sea's falling water levels lead to soil contamination and health problems for residents of surrounding areas. At present, water is unable to flow along Syr-Darya river's course, and instead goes to Arnasay hollow on the border between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, creating an artificial lake. The lake - which already contains almost as much water as the Toktogul reservoir, Central Asia's biggest - continues to flood more and more pastures, roads, communication systems each year. Consequently, experts are predicting the escalation of tension over water resources between the countries of Central Asia.