Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Khairulloev and Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev discussed bilateral military cooperation in addition to Central Asian regional security and the instability created by the situation in Afghanistan. (ITAR-TASS, 5 Feb 01; via lexis-nexis) Russia and all the Central Asian states have cited concern over possible renewed incursions in 2001 by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan Interior Minister Tashtimir Aitbaev recently warned the IMU was preparing for a repeat summer offensive from bases in Afghanistan and Tajikistan. (ITAR-TASS, 0957 GMT, 1 Feb 01; FBIS-SOV-2001-0201, via World News Connection) Unquestionably, Russia is playing on this apprehension to wield yet greater influence in Central Asia.

Tajikistan is the only state in Central Asia where Russia still stations its troops. Additionally, Tajikistan participates actively in the Russian-dominated CIS Collective Security Treaty and the integrated air defense system. Last April, for example, Tajikistan hosted the CIS Southern Shield 2000 exercises, involving Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, in the latter's southwest and in the Termez area of Uzbekistan's Surkhandar'Inskaya Oblast. Uzbekistan's forces only participated in exercises held on its territory. Not surprisingly, its exercises were designed to keep rebel forces from infiltrating Uzbekistan via Tajikistan's southern border. (ITAR-TASS, 1120 GMT, 2 Apr 00; FBIS-NES-2000-0402, via World News Connection) Whether similar CIS-sponsored exercises will take place again in 2001 remains to be seen. Nevertheless, such large-scale exercises could be used as a pretext for increased Russian armed intervention in the region.

In addition to IMU incursions, Russia and Tajikistan have voiced concern about the conflict in Afghanistan and the growing refugee crisis on Tajikistan's border. Recent fighting between opposition Northern Alliance forces and the Taliban in northern Afghanistan's Takhar province has created a new wave of refugees in the Panj River basin on the Tajik-Afghan border. (ITAR-TASS, 0531 GMT, 27 Jan 01; FBIS-SOV-2001-0127, via World News Connection) Tajikistan's foreign ministry claims that the refugee influx from Afghanistan creates "considerable barriers to the consolidation of peace in Tajikistan, the revival of the extremists, radical religious and terrorist band formations, as well as increasing the possibility of the republic's territory being used for subversive activities" against neighboring states. (ITAR-TASS, 1436 GMT, 24 Jan 01; FBIS-SOV-2001-0124, via World News Connection)

On 22 January, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees asked Tajikistan to accept an estimated 10,000 Afghan refugees on the Afghan-Tajik border. Tajikistan President Imomali Rakhmonov denied the request, claiming that refugees include armed fighters and thus would not be allowed to enter Tajikistan. (RFE/RL NEWSLINE, 24 Jan 01) A "batch of humanitarian aid" consisting of 40 tons of oil and 47.5 tons of sugar recently arrived in Dushanbe from Russia for distribution to Afghanistan's northern provinces. Additionally, Moscow is sending 120 tons of flour, 3,000 blankets and 50 tents as part of the relief effort. (ITAR-TASS, 1127 GMT, 30 Jan 01; FBIS-SOV-2001-0130, via World News Connection) Nor is Russia the only country offering aid. The deputy chief of the US Mission to the OSCE, Josiah B. Rosenblatt, recently stated "the United States will continue to provide assistance for these refugees and internally displaced persons, in addition to the relief we are providing to mitigate effects of the drought that has stricken the region." (US State Department STATEMENT, 1 Feb 01) (Tajikistan is one of the countries hardest hit by drought in Central Asia). The US is also responding to an influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan by airlifting emergency supplies such as tents, blankets and rolls of plastic as well as donating money for provisions to be bought locally. US emergency relief will also be provided to Herat, in western Afghanistan near the Iranian border. (BBC NEWS, 7 Feb 01)

Along with humanitarian concerns, US officials have warned of non-traditional security threats in Central Asia, particularly international terrorism and drug trafficking. In testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on the "Worldwide Threat 2001: National Security in a Changing World," the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, George J. Tenet, stated "The drug threat is increasingly intertwined with other threats. For example, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which allows Bin Ladin and other terrorists to operate on its territory, encourages and profits from the drug trade. Some Islamic extremists view drug trafficking as a weapon against the West and a source of revenue to fund their operations." In addition, he said "We are becoming increasingly concerned about the activities of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, an extremist insurgent and terrorist group whose annual incursions into Uzbekistan have become bloodier and more significant every year." (TENET SENATE TESTIMONY, 7 Feb 01) The IMU could destabilize Central Asia as a whole, particularly since the terrorist organization is known to operate from bases in Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have increased in strategic importance because of their geopolitical location and could serve as an effective buffer against the problems coming out of Afghanistan. The US State Department sponsors the Central Asian Border Security initiative, which provides assistance to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan for improving border security. Uzbekistan received US communications equipment recently as part of the initiative to fight terrorism, drug trafficking and illegal arms smuggling. (BBC NEWS, 26 Jan 01) Indeed, Dr. Starr's 17 January visit to Dushanbe serves as another signal of the growing strategic importance of Tajikistan, which defense analysts have long considered to be the weakest link in Central Asian security. The trip possibly could open the door for groundbreaking US-Tajikistan military cooperation in areas such as border security and non-proliferation of biological and chemical weapons. Thus, integrating Tajikistan into a wider cohesive security framework and improving coordination between Bishkek, Dushanbe and Tashkent could prove more effective in the fight against non-traditional security threats flowing out of Central Asia.