Some analysts speculated that Tokaev did not resign of his own will but was instead sacked by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev.
Under Kazakh law, the departure of a prime minister requires the formation of a new government. Within hours, Tokaev had been replaced by Imangali Tasmagambetov, who began to appoint a new cabinet. Many ministers were reappointed to their old posts, though some new faces were introduced.
Tokaev had been prime minister since autumn 1999, when he replaced Nurlan Balgimbayev. Before that, he had served as foreign minister for five years, a post that he will now occupy once more in the new administration. During the nearly two and a half years that Tokaev was prime minister, the Kazakh economy had moved from recession (GDP contracted by 2.5 percent in 1998) to the fastest-growing economy in the former Soviet Union, with GDP increasing by 24.4 percent in 2000-2001. Much of that is attributable to high oil prices, however.
Nazarbaev praised Tokaev for the economic turnaround. However, while the president claimed Tokaev's most important achievement was his "constructive dialogue with parliament," the past few months have seen a rise in political tensions within the country.
Toward the end of 2001, Tokaev claimed several assassination plots aimed at Nazarbaev had been uncovered, and then, in November, several ministers were sacked after they founded a new political movement called Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DVK). Tokaev claimed the group of ministers and senior government officials--including Deputy Prime Minister Uraz Djandosov and Deputy Defense Minister Zhannat Ertlesova--had been fomenting intrigue against the president.
It is unclear whether the departure of Tokaev is in some way connected with the greater political plurality that is emerging in a country traditionally viewed as highly authoritarian. A report in late 2001 by Freedom House, a U.S. nongovernmental organization, placed Kazakhstan in the category of countries described as "not free."
DVK member Bulat Abilov claimed that the new movement had played a "historic role" in Tokaev's downfall. He went on to welcome the arrival of Tasmagambetov, saying he was a well-qualified statesman with a good record and education.
Real power in Kazakhstan lies with the president, however, and the new prime minister, whom Nazarbaev depicted as a longstanding ally, quickly promised to pursue the strategic aims set down by Nazarbaev. Tasmagambetov, who is 45, is a former head of the Kazakh communist youth organization, Komsomol, a former governor of the oil-rich region of Atyrau, and until his latest appointment was the education minister and one of the deputy prime ministers.
In public, Nazarbaev is taking a tough stance against criticism. On 25 January, before Tokaev's resignation, he warned that "strict measures" might be taken to put an end to "intemperate" criticisms of the government. After the Tokaev government collapsed, he issued another strongly worded warning to anyone who might destabilize the country.
At the same time, though, the new prime minister indicated that he would work to heal the political rift that had developed during the last months of his predecessor's stay in office, and some commentators believe Nazarbaev may now be repositioning himself on a number of issues, including economic reform, how to accommodate the demands for greater democracy, and whether to co-opt the opposition.
While Nazarbaev last week downplayed the importance of the DVK, saying it offered nothing new, the movement is calling for some striking changes. Its platform includes demands for a parliamentary rather than presidential system, for the election--rather than appointment--of regional governors, and for a more independent judiciary, a freer press, and deeper economic reform. When it was established, the movement stated that it believed "reforms in Kazakhstan have stopped."
The movement, which is looking to turn itself into a party called Aq zhol ("light road"), represents a new generation of more democratically minded politicians. The other major opposition grouping in Kazakhstan is the Forum of Democratic Forces (FDS), which was created in October 1999 and is headed by a former prime minister, Akezhan Kazhegeldin. While Kazhegeldin's party explicitly called for Nazarbaev to resign in November 2001, the DVK has so far steered clear of directly criticizing Nazarbaev himself.
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