After going through a dormant phase, Azerbaijani-Russian rancor is bubbling up again over the accidental Russian shoot-down of a civilian Azerbaijani jetliner. This round of rhetorical sparring is featuring personal attacks that may well make it harder for either side to back down, thus increasing the risk of a breakdown in bilateral relations.

The spat revived following the release of preliminary findings by Kazakhstani investigators into the December 25 crash, in which 38 of the 67 people aboard died. Without specifically blaming Russia, the report indicated that the plane was hit by “external” metal objects in the sky over Grozny, its intended destination, causing it to lose control over operating systems. 

The report generally upheld the Azerbaijani version of events, in which the plan was critically damaged by Russian anti-aircraft fire. Russia, meanwhile, has steadfastly refused an Azerbaijani demand to take responsibility and pay compensation to victims and their families.

Helping to stoke tension was Azerbaijan’s February 5 move to shutter the Baku offices of Rossotrudnichestvo, an entity used by Russia to exert soft power. The move was widely interpreted as a signal of Azerbaijani displeasure over Russia’s continuing reluctance to own the accident. Azerbaijan is additionally planning to file a lawsuit in an international court to seek justice over the crash. 

Before the crash, the Azerbaijani-Russian relationship seemed rock solid, with the self-proclaimed strategic partners benefiting from robust north-south trade. The two sides also tightened security cooperation in October, ostensibly to counter Western influence in the region. But in the seven weeks since the crash, ties have frayed with startling speed.

“The doors for dialogue with Russia remain open. Moscow must openly admit its guilt and take responsibility. Otherwise, Baku is ready for the next steps,” a report published by the official Azerbaijani news agency APA stated.

The door may be open, but it does not seem Russia will be walking through it any time soon. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists February 7 that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has no plans to comment on the crash. 

In the meantime, various Russian officials have been tossing verbal brickbats at Baku, using high-handed language while effectively calling on Azerbaijani officials to let the matter drop.

Yevgeny Primakov, a grandson of a former Russian prime minister and current head of Rossotrudnichestvo, characterized Baku’s response to the jet crash as “overly emotional,” and expressed hope that Baku would soon “put these emotions on hold, and that an adequate, sane solution will be found.” 

Konstantin Zatulin, the Kremlin’s point man for CIS affairs in the State Duma, took direct aim at Aliyev, blaming him for putting Russia on the spot, and questioning his leadership abilities. Azerbaijan’s “ambitions are so puffed up” that it feels “it can snub Russia,” the RTVI outlet quoted Zatulin as saying on February 6. 

He went on to suggest Ilham Aliyev’s father, Heydar, a former Soviet Politburo member and Azerbaijani head of state, would have handled this situation differently were he still alive. “It would have been wiser [for Ilham] to behave as Heydar Aliyev would have … to exhibit some outward, at least, decency,” Zatulin said. “The son is different from the father in this regard.”

State Duma representatives, meanwhile, have threatened to introduce retaliatory measures against Azerbaijani nationals who legally reside in Russia, including press-ganging them into service in the Ukraine war, as well as confiscating Azerbaijani owned entities in the country.

Ilham Aliyev, who was outspoken in his criticism of Russia in the early days after the crash, has been silent of late, although the presidential website continues to publish letters of condolence received from the leaders of countries around the world.

Some state-affiliated outlets, however, have started to respond, using derisive and churlish language to punch back at Russian critics.

“Azerbaijan, independent of anyone, is open to cooperation with everyone, but does not accept such behavior,” a commentary published by the government-connected Caliber.az website stated, referring to threatened Russian punitive measures. “Azerbaijan has never had any offensive attacks against the Russian leadership and the Russian people. However, the current rhetoric of propagandists close to the Kremlin gives serious reasons to think again about what is happening in the Russian ruling circles.”