Russia is hailing a November 2 summit meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a historic milestone, but, back in Azerbaijan, many analysts see the summit as having been more about stagecraft than about achieving breakthroughs.

Aliyev, Sargsyan and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed a declaration in Moscow on November 2 that reaffirms the non-use of force and observance of international law as the guiding principles for resolution of the 20-year conflict. All three parties also endorsed the notion that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group should act as the conflict's mediator, a role that has recently been exposed to some doubt. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. To underline their commitment to the existing negotiating format, Aliyev and Sargsyan ordered their respective foreign ministers to put greater emphasis on negotiations.

"The presidents aim to improve the situation in the South Caucasus and confirm the importance of OSCE mediation and the need to support the peace settlement process with legally binding international guarantees," the declaration reads.

A pleased Yuri Merzlyakov, Russian envoy to the Minsk Group, noted that the Moscow declaration became the first document signed by both the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents since the 1994 cease-fire.

In Baku, the official reaction to the declaration was something less than excited. "There is no need to look for something new in signing of the document," Foreign Ministry spokesman Khazar Ibrahim told journalists. "The talks still continue and the document indicates their significance. Foundation is needed to be laid to shift to next stage."

Azerbaijani analysts were similarly muted in their reaction. "So what?" commented former presidential foreign policy advisor Vafa Guluzade. The document, Guluzade argued, has no real value.

"Russia did not want to end the visit with nothing. So it had the presidents sign this declaration that has no importance," Guluzade said. "The declaration does not have any binding authority. It lays no responsibility [on anyone for anything]."

Another Baku analyst agrees. "I think that Aliyev and Sargsyan signed this declaration only to satisfy Moscow," commented Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas research center, a Baku-based think-tank. "Russia needed some success in its South Caucasus diplomacy after the conflict in Georgia and, therefore, was very active on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in October," he said. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Eager to cast itself as the Caucasus's peace broker after its recent imbroglio with Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia, Russia of late has emerged as the most vocal proponent for Karabakh negotiations, maintaining direct dialogue with both Baku and Yerevan outside of the Minsk Group format.

The United States, Turkey and France so far have all reacted favorably to the uptick in Russia's diplomatic activity.

US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried made the most optimistic statement in early October when he spoke about the possibility of a settlement "before the end of 2008." A day after Azerbaijan's October 16 presidential vote, meanwhile, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that she expected Karabakh peace talks to gain steam. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Eldar Namazov -- an opposition politician who served as an aide to late President Heidar Aliyev, Ilham's father -- believes that both Moscow and the West see the Karabakh conflict as a chance to restore a semblance of balance to East-West ties after the August Georgia conflict. "Therefore, Russia is doing its best to present itself as a neutral mediator, while the United States and France support Moscow's efforts," Namazov said.

In an October 7 interview with the state-controlled Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov termed the future of the so-called Lachin corridor, the narrow strip of Armenian-controlled territory connecting Karabakh with Armenia proper, as the key issue still on the table.

Moscow, however, has denied that it is trying to monopolize the peace process, cutting Western rivals out. At an October 23 news conference, Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Vasily Istratov emphasized that the OSCE Minsk Group "remains the main format of the conflict resolution," although noted that the resolution process has many formats, which, "fortunately, are not in conflict with each other."

For Shahinoglu, though, deeds mean more than words. And with the fundamental positions of Baku and Yerevan on Karabakh still unchanged, he noted, neither side seems prepared to make necessary compromises.