Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s chief policy adviser, Hikmet Hajiyev, has stated that Baku is demanding the withdrawal of the European Union monitoring mission before a peace treaty can be signed with Armenia. 

The EU deployed the monitoring mission in early 2023 along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border following an escalation of gunfire exchanges. Subsequently, Azerbaijani forces overran the last Armenian-held areas of the hotly contested Nagorno-Karabakh territory in September 2023, spurring the mass exodus of the Karabakh Armenian population. Since then, Armenian officials in Yerevan have viewed the EU mission as crucial for maintaining the status quo. Azerbaijan has consistently opposed the mission’s presence, claiming the EU is biased against Baku.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pushed back against the idea of an EU withdrawal, saying that Armenia was “ready to discuss adjustments, but the mission’s presence serves an essential role in maintaining security.” As a potential compromise, he suggested that monitoring activity be limited to un-demarcated sections of the border.

To date, Armenian and Azerbaijani negotiators have reportedly agreed upon the wording of 15 of the 17 purported articles in the draft peace treaty. No details have been publicly released on the sticking points in the remaining two articles of the pact. A central issue reportedly holding up the peace process is the preamble to the Armenian constitution, which refers to the 1991 declaration of independence, which in turn refers to the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Baku wants Armenia to make a constitutional amendment that clearly recognizes Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh.

The extent to which Baku’s stance on the EU mission will impact treaty negotiations remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, in a development that could also complicate the peace process, Ruben Vardanyan, a billionaire who also was a former de facto leader of Karabakh, is facing additional criminal charges from Azerbaijani authorities, adding to earlier accusations of “financing terrorism” and illegal entry.

Vardanyan was arrested by Azerbaijani authorities at a checkpoint in the Lachin Corridor in September 2023, during the mass exodus of Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population. He has remained in Azerbaijani custody since then. His lawyer, Jared Genser, characterized the proceedings against Vardanyan as a “secret tribunal.” While the Armenian government claims it is making efforts to secure his release, critics argue that Pashinyan is content to let Vardanyan languish in Azerbaijani custody.