Azerbaijani Elections Could Pave the Way For Political Succession in Azerbaijan
After a campaign filled with controversy, voters will head to the polls on November 5 to cast ballots in Azerbaijan's second parliamentary elections since 1991. The election outcome could pave the way for the transfer of power from President Heidar Aliev to his son, Ilham, who is currently a top official with the state oil company, SOCAR.
Ilham Aliyev is leading the ruling New Azerbaijan party's list, and he is widely expected to win a parliamentary seat, and eventually be named Speaker. Ultimately, as a function of that post as stipulated by the Constitution, Ilham could inherit the presidency if his oft-infirm father, Heidar Aliev, were to resign. While Ilham lacks political experience and has conducted a lackluster election campaign, the dominance of his father and his party in Azerbaijan's political life virtually guarantee him victory at the polls.
Seats to the 125-member parliament, the Milli Mejlis, will be elected under both first-past-the-post and proportional systems, the former allocating 100 seats and the latter 25. Thirteen parties have been registered by the country's Central Election Commission (CEC), including the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, and the opposition National Independence, Popular Front and Musavat parties. Four hundred nine candidates have registered to contest first-past-the-post seats.
Of these, 147 are independent, 140 are from the New Azerbaijan party, 40 are from the Popular Front, and 28 and 22 are from the National Independence and Musavat parties, respectively. The Azerbaijan Democratic party has also registered four candidates. The remaining parties are sponsoring a combined total of 15 candidates in the elections.
These elections -- like the previous parliament poll in 1995 and the presidential vote of 1998 -- have been marked by allegations of electoral manipulation. A particular source of controversy has been the Central Election Commission (CEC), the body responsible for administering the elections. Opposition leaders and human rights groups have questioned the CEC's independence and impartiality, citing the fact that supporters of the government dominate the panel, and have controlled the process of appointing subordinate commissions at the district and local levels. The commissions on all levels have supervised the candidate registration process, as well as the election campaign. Observers have characterized the registration process for both political parties and candidates as arbitrary and unfair.
Perhaps the most prominent dispute occurred in late September, when the CEC declared that the Musavat and Democratic parties would be barred from contesting the elections on grounds that they had gathered an insufficient number of signatures to validate their participation. While international pressure succeeded in winning the reinstatement of the parties, authorities have refused to reconsider rulings banning the registration of almost half of all candidates seeking to contest first-past-the-post seats.
In addition, authorities continually interfered in opposition-sponsored activities during the campaign. For example, Musavat activists charged in late October that authorities had destroyed and defaced some of the opposition party's campaign posters. Critics have said the government also harassed, and in some cases jailed, representatives of the independent press. [For additional information see EurasiaNet's Election Watch]. Another source of controversy is passage of a law that discourages nonpartisan domestic observers from monitoring the elections. While several international organizations will send their observers to Azerbaijan on election day, Azerbaijani citizens themselves will be barred from exercising oversight at the polls.
On Nov. 3, Gudrat Hasanguliev, a secretary of the election commission and Popular Front member, charged that many of the CEC's decisions and actions concerning the campaign have violated democratic norms. According to the Interfax news agency, he was critical of the fact that many well-known politicians had been denied registration. He also cited several electoral code irregularities, including the violation of a rule that bars the head of state television and radio from belonging to a political party. The current state TV chief, Nizami Khudiyev, is a member of the ruling New Azerbaijan party, Hasanguliev said.
Such deficiencies in the process, it is feared, will undermine public confidence in the elections and keep voters away from the polls. Low voter turn-out could diminish public scrutiny of the process, and facilitate polling place abuses. These concerns were reflected in a background statement issued by Human Rights Watch on October 30. The statement declared that, "Government interference in Azerbaijan's upcoming parliamentary elections has diminished prospects for a free and fair vote." The organization described how the government has prevented opposition candidates from contesting the election, and charged that Azerbaijan was backtracking on its commitments to the Council of Europe.
The Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly will consider Azerbaijan
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