Several opposition parties have staged protest rallies in recent days. Musavat Party loyalists picketed July 23 in front of the Constitutional Court, which in June sanctioned the holding of the referendum next month. The Hurriyet daily in Baku reported that authorities had arrested 50 members of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan (DPA) who sought to join a July 20 rally that had been sanction by city officials.

Musavat, DPA and other opposition party leaders have publicly called for a referendum boycott unless changes are made in the referendum's scope and timing. Musavat leader Isa Gambar said that the government had already "defined" the referendum's results, Hurriyet said.

The United States is calling for the referendum to be rescheduled. "Not enough time has been given to the people to hold public discussion," James Seward, press attaché at the US embassy in Baku, told the newspaper. OSCE officials have also criticized the referendum's time frame.

Despite the domestic opposition and the international criticism, Aliyev shows no inclination to push the referendum date back. "We have planned this referendum for August 24 and we are going to hold it," Aliyev told reporters in Baku on July 19. The Azerbaijani president was dismissive of the opposition threat to boycott the poll. "This is their business," he said.
"Any party or organization can do what it wants. They can boycott if they can."

Opposition leaders expect Aliyev to make a few concessions, especially to his international critics. But, they add, it is unlikely that Aliyev will give ground on the most important political issues, especially the questions that would serve to enhance presidential power and enjoy more control over the succession process.

"The authorities do not want representatives from any international organization to observe the referendum. They want to fix things, as is their habit, and change the constitution to suit their interests. Then they are going to tell the Council of Europe that now they are ready to discuss the issue of political prisoners. In other words, after attaining their principal objectives the authorities are going to make certain concessions on small issues," said Leyla Yunus, director of the Institute for Peace and Democracy.

Voters will be asked to approve or reject 39 amendments to 20 articles of the constitution, which was adopted in 1995. Many of the proposed changes are designed to bring Azerbaijan's basic law into conformity with Council of Europe human rights standards. One such change would be the removal of Article 27 Part IV of the constitution, which permits the use of lethal force against people during emergency situations and martial law.

The most controversial changes concern the electoral system and the political transition process. Aliyev wants a new electoral system in which single-mandate constituencies are established and the winners are determined in first-past-the-post races. Currently, Azerbaijan uses a mixed system, under which some MPs are elected in first-past-the-post votes while others are selected from party lists based on the percentage of the vote that each particular party receives.

Opposition parties see the electoral amendment as an attempt by Aliyev to monopolize the political sphere. Many opposition parties lack a nationwide organization, and thus would find it difficult to compete against the pro-presidential New Azerbaijan Party, which captured 78 of the 125 parliamentary seats contested in the November 2000 elections.

The other contentious amendment would establish the prime minister as successor to the president in the event of the death, resignation or incapacitating illness of the chief executive. Many observers believe that Aliyev would utilize this change to ensure that his son Ilham succeeds him. In a scenario outlined by many analysts, Aliyev would appoint his son prime minister after the new constitutional changes take effect, and then he would resign. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Etibar Mamedov, leader of the National Independence Party, described the proposed amendments as "concentration of power in the hands of the president and deprivation of the parliament's power."

In proceeding with referendum plans, Aliyev appears to be taking advantage of a divided opposition. At a July 10 roundtable, some opposition political leaders -- including
Ali Kerimli, head of the reformist wing of the Popular Front Party -- said the best way to frustrate Aliyev's plan is to unite various opposition viewpoints. Azerbaijan's opposition parties have in the past demonstrated little inclination to cooperate. The threat posed by the referendum, however, has removed many, but not all of the barriers to cooperation.

Opposition parties issued a list of demands July 17 concerning the referendum. Among the conditions for opposition participation were; a guarantee that all political parties enjoy media access; the presence of foreign election observers; and giving voters the ability to accept or reject each proposed constitutional change individually, instead of voting on the changes in a single package.

Aliyev has yet to provide any indication that he is willing to meet opposition demands. For example, Peter Burkhard, head of the OSCE office in Baku, said his organization had not received a request from the government to provide election monitors. At the same time, Burkhard reserved judgement on the opposition's boycott strategy. "I do not think that boycotting elections is an undemocratic measure. It is also a method of self-expression," Burkhard told the MPA news agency July 23. "Although [one case ask whether] it the boycott is expedient? It is possible to say