As opposition parties in Azerbaijan coalesce, they are staging a series of rallies to sway public opinion against the government. Police beat and arrested scores of people at a rally in the capital's Fizuli Square in March. But opposition leaders - who hold that President Heydar Aliyev lacks the moral legitimacy to run the country - say they can sense change in the air, and claim to be ready for a long campaign.
Historically, the Azerbaijani opposition has suffered from internal tension. The Popular Front, the broad-based independence movement that brought Azerbaijan's second president Abulfaz Elchibey to power, split immediately after his death in 2000 over who should succeed him. [See related Eurasia Insight story.] There are myriad small parties led by political contenders who prefer to have their own power base rather than lend support to a rival.
This spring, however, two new opposition blocs have taken shape. The United Opposition Movement, which groups the nationalist Musavat party with one wing of the Popular Front, the Democratic Party and numerous smaller parties, looks ready to wield the most influence. The other alliance groups the Popular Front's reformists with the Party of National Independence.
Both alliances staged rallies in March that brought several thousand people to the streets. If they remain united, analysts say they may manage to mobilize citizens. But their two biggest hurdles - the power of the president and their own inexperience in working together - will demand real dexterity.
"I don't exclude the possibility that under certain circumstances, the opposition could unite
Clare Doyle is a freelance journalist based in Baku.
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