Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev has so far avoided public comment on the possibility of a US-led war against Iraq. His silence on the issue speaks volumes about the political dilemma that the Iraq question poses for Azerbaijan: Baku wants to please Washington, but is wary about how the looming conflict might affect largely Muslim Azerbaijanis.

Azerbaijan has moved in recent years to link its economic future with the United States – the clearest manifestation of this trend being the ongoing Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline project. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. In addition, Azerbaijan has strengthened security ties with Washington since the September 11 terrorist attacks. Not wanting to risk the relationship, Aliyev's administration is supportive of Washington's call for a quick strike against Saddam Hussein. Yet, at the same time, there are indications that Aliyev is apprehensive about how Azerbaijanis might react to a US blitz.

Many Azerbaijani Muslims oppose military action against Iraq. For example, police on February 8 broke up an anti-war rally outside the US embassy. Popular sympathy for Baghdad is fueled by the perception that Iraq is one of the few Islamic countries that has not attempted to interfere in Azerbaijan's domestic affairs, specifically in the religious sphere. Since the Soviet collapse, some foreign nations have provided financial support for the revival of Islamic values in Azerbaijan. However, some observers say aid has also been used to promote radical Islamic ideas.

On February 9, Galib Abd Hussein al-Tamimi, the Iraqi ambassador to Azerbaijan, stressed Azerbaijanis' friendly attitude toward the people of Iraq. He also vowed that the estimated 150 Iraqis living in Azerbaijan would join a fight against the United States in the event of war. "If Iraq is occupied, we will turn not only Iraq, but also the entire Arab region into not just one, but several Vietnams," the Yeni Musavat daily quoted al-Tamimi as saying.

Conversations with Baku residents reveal serious misgivings about a war. "I think there should not be a war," said 54-year-old engineer Akif Rahmanov, providing a typical viewpoint. His wife Kamila, a 52-year-old doctor, said that she supports Iraqis because they are Muslims.

On the official level, not only Aliyev but also opposition leaders see the need to back the Bush administration. Ali Karimli, the parliament deputy who chairs the reformist Peoples' Front Party of Azerbaijan, has urged his members to align with the United States and reject claims that an American-led invasion would represent an assault on Islam.

"Some politicians use such methods to try to fan anti-American sentiment among the public," he told the Ekho newspaper on February 19. "Somehow they forget that the same Saddam Hussein had twice used chemical and bacteriological weapons against Iraqi Shiites and Kurds, who are also Muslims."

Statements issued by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry reflect the government's dilemma. Azerbaijani diplomats have tended to frame their support for the United States in convoluted diplomatic language. One ministry statement, for example, urged Iraq to voluntarily disarm "on the basis of the facts, provided in the report of United States Secretary of State Colin Powell to the United Nations Security Council."

This diplomatic formulation suggests that Azerbaijan believes, and therefore supports, American contentions that Iraq has violated earlier UN resolutions and deserves punishment. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's rhetoric contrasts sharply with that coming from its neighbor, Georgia, whose leadership has welcomed American soldiers and explicitly endorsed American policy toward Iraq.

Restrained rhetoric out of Baku is likely to continue for several reasons. For one, an Iraq war may not be in Azerbaijan's best economic interests. Many analysts suspect that a post-Saddam Iraq could prompt lower oil prices worldwide, at least for a short time. Anything that could increase supply from Iraq's oilfields could cause serious budget damage to Azerbaijan, which depends heavily on its oil and gas sector to fill state coffers. In addition, there is concern that Islamic radicals may try to exploit Baku's pro-American position to step up recruitment efforts among Azerbaijanis.

Ultimately, analysts say, Azerbaijan wants to maintain its strategic ties with the United States, as well as try to bolster Turkey, its key regional ally. Baku would like to accomplish these twin aims in a quiet manner, however, so as to reduce the chances of unrest among Azerbaijani Muslims.