US President George W. Bush arrived in Moscow May 23 for a summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The dramatic improvement in US-Russian relations in the past months has the potential to be the single most important geopolitical shift in the world since World War II. A strategic alliance between our two nations, all but unthinkable a year ago, is a real possibility.
Following September 11, despite widespread internal opposition, Putin demonstrated his commitment to deepening relations with the United States. Russia openly supported America's military efforts in Afghanistan, shared and coordinated intelligence in the region, facilitated the opening of US bases in Central Asia, and unilaterally closed their own listening posts in Cuba and Vietnam. In the global war against terror, Russia has been one of America's most important partners.
President Bush has made a strong public commitment to Russia in return. Thanks to a pending Arms Control Agreement and NATO's announcement of closer cooperation between allied and Russian military forces, real progress is being made.
Reduction of arms and cooperative military security are meaningful projects, however, it would be shortsighted if our work stopped there.
When President Bush and President Putin meet again in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the agenda for the summit should be taken further than defense and security issues. There are many areas where a more active US policy could contribute to transforming President Bush's friendship with President Putin into a lasting alliance. Here, we focus on three of the most important economic assistance, expanding energy partnerships and resolving issues surrounding the Caspian Sea region.
Economic Cooperation
A combination of higher oil prices and cautious macroeconomic management contributed to a recovery of the Russian economy after the August 1998 crisis. In addition to supporting Russia's bid to enter the World Trade Organization, the United States should assist Russia with well-targeted direct economic aid and technical assistance, to support the structural reforms aimed at sustaining the high growth rates that are necessary to safeguard political and social stability.
United States support for initiatives aimed at reducing the heavy burden of Soviet-era "Paris Club" debts would make a substantial difference. Upon the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia assumed over US $40 billion of Soviet debts, primarily disbursed in the late 1980's and early 90's by the export credit agencies of industrial countries in the west. Russia's debt burden is heavy, amounting to $3.5-4.0 billion per year through 2015. Payments this year alone exceed total Russian federal spending on education and are nearly equal total expenditure on the judiciary and law enforcement.
To promote stability, the United States should work together with European allies to establish a fund, jointly administered by Russia and Paris Club creditor states, to be used to finance a variety of projects within Russia, in such areas as education, the environment and public health. Writing-off these debt repayments would be a low-cost option for creditor nations, while having a profound impact on Russia's development and stability in areas that currently receive inadequate funding.
Both international financial institutions and Western governments have provided Russia with valuable technical assistance during much of the past decade. The scope of these efforts needs to be boosted, to support the Russian government's own structural reform agenda. American advice and technical support in such crucial areas as tax policy, banking sector reform and the design of targeted social programs would be inexpensive but tremendously valuable to ensure the success of ongoing reform.
Energy
In the last two years, Russia's role as an energy exporter has grown faster than that of any other country. Until now Russia has been a European energy supplier, but after rapid expansion of production and exports, Russia is emerging as a global energy power. Since the United States is the world's largest energy importer, both countries have a common interest in energy cooperation and global energy security.
Currently, Russia is not a part of the world energy security framework. The United States should seek to build a more balanced political relationship with Russia that would acknowledge Russia's increased role in US and global energy security. In particular, action should be taken to involve Russia in the International Energy Association's energy security framework.
The United States should further assist Russia with investment in deepwater ports that would make it economical for Russian oil to be shipped to the Western Hemisphere, both from Europe and Asia, thus making Russia potentially a significant supplier to the United States. The United States should also consider more direct forms of economic cooperation in the energy sphere, including the purchasing of military fuel from Russia.
The Caspian
Before we lay the groundwork for this new energy partnership, we must find common ground with regard to the Caspian Sea region. US-Russian relations in the Caspian Sea region has often been described as the modern "Great Game" with Russia trying to maintain its monopoly position in the area, and the United States' investments in circumventing Russian presence, leaving us at a fork in the road. In light of the shared geopolitical interests of both countries following September 11, attempts by both countries to exclude the other are counter productive and cooperation will serve the interests of both powers.
The United States should make it clear that it views Russia as an essential strategic ally in the Caspian with an important role to play in bringing the region stability and prosperity. To this end, the United States should create a multilateral forum with Russia, together with the states of the Caucasus and Central Asia, to discuss security arrangements, pipeline issues and economic development in the Caspian. While avoiding condominium, America should stand ready to engage in an energetic and constructive dialogue with Russia, both on areas of mutual interest, as well as potential competition.
America should build off of recent NATO-Russia ties and expand the relationship with engagement in joint cooperation on issues of mutual security concern in the Caspian. Such initiatives could include support for Georgia in combating terrorism, as well as the future of US-Central Asian military engagement.
Despite the turmoil in US-Russian relations over the past decade, the opportunity of 1991 to achieve a true alliance with Russia is still available. With at last an attentive and disciplined foreign policy group in Moscow, Mr. Putin has made his best offer. At this week's summit, it's time America returns the favor.
Ian Bremmer is President of Eurasia Group and Senior Fellow at the World Policy Institute. Curt Weldon is a US Congressman (R - PA) and a member of the House Armed Services Committee.
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