Timed to coincide with the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, the United Nations Environmental Programme issued a report on major environmental challenges in the Caucasus, outlining the ramifications of global warming for public health, food security and economic development in the region. Among the key issues examined are air pollution and the melting of glaciers.

Warming-caused glacier retreat is a source of “water scarcity, affecting agriculture, hydroelectric power generation and ecosystems dependent on water availability,” the report states. “Changing precipitation patterns are another factor causing increased water stress in the Ecoregion.”

Eurasianet recently published an in-depth look at how that melting looks on the ground: as the Gergeti glacier in northern Georgia recedes, scientists are scrambling to collect precious data stored in the ice.

To better understand the perils of glacier retreat, Eurasianet spoke with Levan Tielidze, a professor at Ilia State University and research fellow at Australia’s Monash University, who has studied the Caucasus glaciers extensively.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Eurasianet: What is the significance of Georgia’s glaciers and how climate change is affecting them?

Tielidze: As Georgia is a very small country – when I say small, I mean compared to other Central Asian or Central European countries – with more than 700 glaciers, that’s a lot of ice for such a small country. And most of the mountain rivers come from these glaciers. So this is the first thing: they are important as a freshwater source.

Also, they play a role in hydroelectric power. The largest hydro power station, which is the Enguri Dam – about 30 percent of the water in that Enguri Reservoir is glacial melt water. This is another important thing.

Also, as tourist attractions, glaciers play a big role for economic income. We also recently saw that glacier hazards are getting very common in this region. So, this is another point on why we should care about glaciers and how climate change will affect or impact them.

Eurasianet: Last year, Georgia experienced a devastating landslide linked to glacial melting. You’ve alluded to this kind of hazard already, but could you talk more about the risks of glacial melting?

Tielidze: We can highlight several different risks. One is slope instabilities, which is related to permafrost. This is a process in which slopes start melting during the summer and they lose stability, and they can cause rock avalanches. This is related to the glacial melting process.

In addition, glacial lake outburst floods – GLOF is the acronym – are getting very common. Water from the glacier can accumulate as lakes in front of the glacier, and temporary lakes can be formed. And if the natural dam is destroyed – this can be a glacial moraine or something else – this can cause huge flooding in the valleys.

Debris flow from the glacier’s surface, or slopes over the glacier, can be another hazard. Especially if there is heavy rain and increased temperature, this combination can be dangerous for settlements in the mountain regions.

Eurasianet: In 2018, you authored a comprehensive glacial inventory of the Caucasus. What did you learn about the past and future of glacial melting in the region?

Tielidze: I can mention a few important points. One is that the glacial melting process was much lower during the first half of the 20th century and much higher in the second half of 20th century – and even higher at the beginning of the 21st century. 

Second, the temperature increase or warming was also in line with this glacial change. So based on data collected in the mountain regions, we found that the temperature increase was between 0.5 to one degree, which is a lot during one century.

When we say the change was about one degree, you might say, “Oh, one degree is nothing.” But we often say that during the last glacial maximum or glaciation – the ice age – for example, the temperature was only about six degrees cooler than today. So one degree in one century, that’s a lot. And this trend is increasing.

The other thing we learned from that inventory was that the eastern Caucasus glaciers were melting much faster than in the central and western parts. The prediction was that because of this melting speed, most of the glaciers in the eastern Caucasus will disappear by the end of this century. But based on recent studies, this could actually happen much earlier than by the end of the century.

We published this inventory about eight years ago, so since then a lot of new studies have come out. I think even by 2050 – about 25 years from now – a lot of glaciers will have disappeared.

Eurasianet: Those are shocking numbers. What can be done to address the issue?

Tielidze: This is probably a general question because Georgia is a small country. As a country, it probably cannot contribute a lot in terms of minimizing the impact of climate change or glacial melting. But as individuals, we should all contribute to decreasing our role in climate change. The main issue of climate change or global warming, which impacts glacial melting, is greenhouse gasses. 

From this point of view, Georgia has a very small contribution. But again, it’s important that we all contribute to mitigating climate change.

Eurasianet: What sorts of climate change adaptation strategies are being used in Georgia?

Tielidze: That’s a difficult question. I’ve seen a couple of reports, but we don’t really have an adaptation strategy so far. As Georgia is a developing country, this means we need to work very hard in this direction, because we see these glacier hazards, that temperature is increasing, and that global warming is happening every day.

We should be prepared, especially when we have these mountain regions and many villages in those regions. But as far as I know, there is not any officially documented adaptation strategy or something like that, even though a couple of reports have been published on this topic.

Eurasianet: Do you think there’s anything the international community or other countries can do to help Georgia meet this challenge?

Tielidze: I know a lot of projects are going on in the Central Asian countries – mainly European countries supporting them to learn how to mitigate, how to adapt, how to work with an adaptation strategy. But as far as I know, there are not a lot of projects going on in Georgia in this area, unfortunately.

I think we need more involvement from European countries, and more expressed interest from the Georgian side as well. As far as I know, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has collaborations with European institutions within these topics, but I don’t know the progress or results of those.

Eurasianet. Do you think COP29 can help bring attention to the topic?

Tielidze: Definitely. There was a scheduled presentation on November 12, which I co-authored, in which Dr. Chris Stokes spoke on the “Recent and Future Loss of Glaciers in the Greater Caucasus (Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan).”

Eurasianet: What are you working on now?

Tielidze: We are working on several topics, like recently we published a paper about debris-covered glaciers from the entire Caucasus region. Debris is material that covers part of the glacial ice, mostly glacial tongues, which sometimes has an impact on the melting process. Sometimes it increases melting, sometimes it decreases it. It depends on the debris thickness.

We are also trying to work on a new study about geodetical mass-balance measurements of Caucasus glaciers. Another project has to do with inventorying glacial lakes. And the last one is about past glacier climate reconstruction from this region based on the geochronology (or cosmogenic exposure) dating technique, which is very widely used and a relatively new method.