Turkey is trying to couple the profits of becoming a regional energy-transit hub with the prestige of hosting the annual UN climate conference. It is too early to say whether Turkish leaders will accomplish either goal.

Ankara has long sought to position itself as a vital corridor for the transit of fossil fuels from the Caspian Basin to Europe, leveraging its strategic geographic location as a route bypassing Russia. Dan Jørgensen, the European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, visited Ankara in early April for meetings before heading to Azerbaijan to discuss increasing natural gas supplies via the Southern Gas Corridor. In a recent interview, Jørgensen emphasized the EU’s need to reduce its energy dependency on Russia.

Beyond the potential for handling an increased flow of Azerbaijani energy exports, Turkish transit hub ambitions received a boost in March, when a gas-swap deal with Turkmenistan started operations. The agreement is seen as a major step in an ambitious Turkish plan to facilitate the delivery of upwards of 65 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas annually to EU markets within 25 years. Despite the promising start, lots of pitfalls remain in the way of meeting that transit target.

The same holds for Turkey’s efforts to host the 2026 UN climate summit, or COP31. Australia was long viewed as the favorite to host COP31, but during COP29, the most recent climate summit, held in the Azerbaijani capital Baku last November, Turkey made a late push to promote its candidacy. No decision on the host country for COP31 was announced in Baku, and it is uncertain when a choice will be made.

When he officially announced Turkey’s candidacy on the second day of the Baku meeting, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan touted Ankara’s green credentials, claiming the country is transforming key sectors to achieve net zero emissions by 2053. 

Experts take a skeptical view of the government’s green achievements. Emission reduction pledges are based on business-as-usual scenarios, some point out, effectively allowing emissions to rise by around 30 percent by 2030, based on 2020 levels. In addition, the country remains heavily reliant on coal; Turkey is now the largest coal-fired electricity producer in Europe, and fossil fuels continue to dominate its energy production. 

Complicating Turkey’s COP31 bid is Ankara’s diplomatic distancing from the West in recent years, coupled with mounting democratic backsliding, underscored by the recent arrest of Erdoğan’s leading political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who maintains his jailing is politically motivated.

To secure COP31, Turkey is expected to engage in high-level dialogue seeking support from Western Europe, North America and New Zealand. According to Ümit Şahin, a prominent Turkish climate expert and the coordinator of climate change studies at the Istanbul Policy Center, Turkey’s ability to secure COP31 will require some adjustments to the government’s present foreign political course.

“Turkey needs to move beyond seemingly logical reasons such as fossil fuels or carbon footprints and instead make a fully political intervention, which perhaps could be an argument that Turkey will further align itself with the West,” Şahin said in a recent interview with Turkish news outlet T24. “As long as these steps are not taken, EU support cannot be secured, and it seems very difficult for Turkey to win.”

Australia’s COP31 bid has experienced a hiccup since the UN climate summit in Baku. According to a report published by the Australian Associated Press, some elements within the country’s coalition government believe hosting a global summit would not be a wise expenditure of taxpayer funds. But Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen sought to tamp down speculation that Australia might back out. “We are bidding to host COP31 in partnership with the Pacific because it is in Australia’s national interest to bring down energy bills and emissions with reliable renewables while safeguarding our international relationships,” the AAP quoted Bowen as saying.

Perhaps surprisingly, Turkish civil society organizations – which have come under growing pressure from Erdoğan’s regime in recent years, and are often at odds with the government’s climate policies – generally are supportive of the government’s COP31 bid.

Experts argue that hosting the summit could push Turkey toward adopting more decisive climate policies. Şahin notes that securing COP31 could encourage Turkey to take more concrete steps, such as phasing out coal and enacting stronger environmental protections. Environmental organizations, including Greenpeace, also have voiced support for Turkey’s bid, with Berkan Özyer, program director of Greenpeace Mediterranean, commenting that hosting COP31 could give Turkey’s climate movement a much-needed boost by encouraging bolder decision-making.

Whether or not Turkey can win EU support for its bid could be the determining factor in the COP31 hosting competition. With the EU seeking to bolster its energy security — and Turkey well positioned to assist through the Southern Gas Corridor and renewed high-level dialogue — Ankara holds valuable cards. Yet, ongoing concerns over democratic backsliding cast a shadow over its credibility.