ARMENIA

• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 12.9 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. 

• A poll conducted in July by the Caucasus Research Resource Center for the World Bank found that 54 percent of Armenians say their financial situation has worsened due to the pandemic, CivilNet reported on August 25. Over one-third (35 percent) of respondents lost work or income and 33 percent expect the situation to worsen. Among respondents who do not support more lockdown restrictions, 66 percent attributed their decision to economic concerns. An English version of the survey can be found here. 

• Armenia's public debt grew 8.4 percent in the first seven months of 2020, Tert.am reported on August 18, to 58 percent of GDP. 

• On August 18 the education minister described how schools will open on September 15: Classes will be smaller than normal, so the school day will be moved into shorter shifts and students will attend classes six days a week.

• Yerevan has overseen the distribution of 150 billion drams (over $310 million) in pandemic relief so far, Economy Minister Tigran Khachatryan told journalists on August 14. Over 60 percent of this total was issued as bank loans.

• The State Revenue Committee said on August 3 that the government has spent 2.6 billion drams ($5.4 million) supporting 12,857 small businesses thus far during the pandemic.

• When Armenia ended its coronavirus lockdown in early May, even as the epidemic’s spread was accelerating, the government cited the need to keep the economy going and let people get back to work. Nearly three months on, the economy has continued to suffer, we reported on July 30.

• Armenia's Central Bank reaffirmed its prediction that the economy will contract 4 percent this year, Radio Azatutyun reported on July 28.

AZERBAIJAN

• Non-oil exports fell 8.6 percent in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, the government-run Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication said on August 31. Exports to Turkey fell, while those to Russia and China rose.

• Housing construction has “collapsed,” Turan reported on August 26, citing a 17 percent decline in square meters built in the first seven months of the year.

• Gold exports fell 6.8 percent in the first half of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019, Turan reported on August 20. 

• Azerbaijan's flag carrier, AZAL, carried 68 percent fewer people in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, Turan reported on August 19. 

• Unemployment has increased by 36.6 percent since April 1, at the beginning of the pandemic, Turan reported on August 17. 

• GDP in the first half of 2020 fell by 2.8 percent compared with the previous year, the State Statistics Committee said on August 13.

• President Ilham Aliyev, nodding to the unfolding economic crisis, called on August 6 for state companies to be privatized, blasting the “socialist economic model” he has overseen for 17 years. 

• Azerbaijan has adjusted its budget to reflect lower oil prices – $35 a barrel rather than $55 – Finance Minister Samir Sharifov said on August 5 in comments carried by Azadliq. The fall in GDP is unlikely to exceed 5 percent this year, Sharifov added. 

• The Economy Ministry announced on August 5 a second phase of payroll support to businesses that have not laid off a “significant” number of employees. 

• Downward pressure is easing on the Azerbaijani manat, though Baku remains highly dependent on oil and gas sales, which account for roughly 40 percent of GDP, 81 percent of export revenues, and two-thirds of the government budget, Fitch Ratings said on July 17. "Azerbaijan's very strong external balance sheet is absorbing most of the impact from lower oil prices," Fitch said in its negative outlook, but "lack of predictability and transparency of policy-making exacerbates the risk of policy missteps." 

• Income from Azerbaijan's oil exports fell 30 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2020, Turan reported on July 17. Non-oil exports decreased by 6.9 percent.
• Oil workers on offshore platforms have been told to take pay cuts or be sacked, OC Media reported on July 2. Some workers report they have not been paid in months.

GEORGIA

• GDP declined 12.6 percent in the second quarter, compared to the same period the previous year, and 5.8 percent in the first seven months of 2020, the National Statistic Office said on August 31. Government officials said the 5.5 percent decrease in July indicates the economy has begun to recover.

• Georgia has almost doubled peach and nectarine exports this season, as of August 26, compared to last year, Agenda.ge reported. 

• The National Statistics Office on August 19 released updated trade figures for the first seven months of 2020: Exports as a whole, including reexports, fell 16.8 percent year-on-year while exports of wholly Georgian-made goods fell 2 percent. External trade turnover dropped 17.6 percent in the first half of 2020, the National Statistics Office said on August 13. 

• Fitch Ratings affirmed Georgia’s credit rating at “BB” with a negative outlook. "A consistent and credible policy framework has underpinned Georgia's resilience to previous shocks," Fitch said on August 14, but "the negative outlook reflects the significant impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Georgia's economy. The pandemic is causing a sharp contraction of Georgia's small open economy with a large tourism sector, a deterioration in fiscal accounts, including markedly higher public debt, and increasing risks stemming from Georgia's higher external debt and wider structural current account deficit relative to the median of its 'BB' category peers." Fitch predicts a 4.8 percent GDP contraction in 2020. 

• Money transfers to Georgia jumped sharply in July, by 22.1 percent compared to a year earlier. But the figures could be misleading, the National Bank of Georgia warned on August 14. Previously these funds may have arrived as cash instead of bank transfers; moreover, remittances appeared to rise sharply after falling for several months. 

• Georgia is one of eight countries to receive European Commission support financing its external debts during the pandemic, the Commission announced on August 11. Conditions for the 150 million euro loan “relate to strengthening public finance management, improving governance, sector reforms, and labour market policies.” 

• The German government will loan Tbilisi 310 million euros ($365 million), Civil.ge reported on August 8. 180 million euros are intended to help fight economic fallout from the pandemic; the other 130 million euros are earmarked for infrastructure projects. 

• Schools will reopen on September 15, the government announced on August 5. 

• The National Bank has revised downward its GDP estimate for 2020 to negative 5 percent, Interpress reported on August 5; officials previously predicted output to fall 4 percent.

• Food prices rose in July at an annual rate of 11.5 percent, contributing to an annualized inflation rate of 5.7 percent, the National Statistic Office said on August 3. Transport prices fell. 

• The average household in Georgia has seen its income fall 40 percent since the pandemic began, OC-Media reported, citing a study released in late July. 

• Lufthansa resumed flights to Georgia on August 3, Agenda.ge reported. With the exception of flights from Paris, Munich and possibly Riga, Georgia will not allow international flights to land in the country until at least August 31, Agenda.ge reported on July 22. The EU has allowed Georgian citizens to resume visits since July 1.

KAZAKHSTAN

• Foreign trade turnover fell 7.4 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, the trade minister said on August 20. Turnover with Eurasian Economic Union members fell 10 percent. 

• Since March, 15 percent of Kazakh bank borrowers have asked for repayment forbearance, Fitch Ratings estimated on August 20. That includes 34 percent of retail and 41 percent of SME borrowers.

• Authorities will allow some international flights to resume on August 17, Tengri reported on August 12. Approved destinations include the United Arab Emirates,  Belarus, Germany, the Netherlands, Egypt, Ukraine and Russia.

• GDP declined 2.9 percent in the first six months of 2020, the government said on August 11. At 7.1 percent, inflation was slightly below expectations.

• The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection said that 2.5 million Kazakhstanis have applied for government assistance to help with job loss related to the pandemic since the second lockdown began last month. 2.3 million received the 42,000 tenge ($100) payment, Inform.kz reported on August 11. 

• A healthcare worker in Almaty admitted to police that she sold 12 negative coronavirus test certificates for about $60 apiece, Mediazona reported on August 6. Corruption in the medical industry is considered common because of low salaries. 

• Most children will study remotely when the school year starts on September 1, the Education Minister said on August 4. 

• The World Bank expects Kazakhstan’s economy to contract by 3 percent this year, it said in a July 22 report: “Preliminary estimates suggest that the poverty rate may rise in 2020 from a projected 8.3 to 12.7 percent – equating to more than 800,000 additional people living in poverty.” 

KYRGYZSTAN

• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 20.1 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. Remittances shot up in June following several below-average months, 24.kg reported, citing unpublished National Bank figures. Most transfers originated in Russia. 

• A study overseen by the Economy Ministry expects GDP this year to fall by 10 percent, 24.kg reported on August 13. 

• The Moscow-led Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development announced a $100 million concessionary loan to Kyrgyzstan for pandemic relief on August 7.

• International donors have provided $333 million to Kyrgyzstan to help fight coronavirus, the deputy finance minister said on August 5. $260 million was received in the form of budget support. 

• Kyrgyzstan has negotiated debt extensions with most of its creditors, but not yet with China, which owns almost half of the debt, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported on August 5. In total, Kyrgyzstan expects to owe $4.2 billion at the end of the year, Finance Minister Baktygul Zheenbaeva said.

• During a visit to an infectious diseases hospital in Issyk-Kul region on August 4, President Sooronbai Jeenbekov said the government would raise money to increase doctors’ salaries by bringing more of the economy out of the shadows – a Sisyphean task successive governments have struggled to implement for years. The highest paid doctors in Kyrgyzstan receive $169 per month, which is less than the average monthly wage in the country. Salaries for new doctors start at $52 per month.

• The Financial Police have begun raiding pharmacies as they investigate reports of artificial drug shortages and overpricing, Kloop reported on July 24.

TAJIKISTAN

• Pensions and wages for public-sector workers, such as doctors, will increase 15 percent on September 1, the second such raise in two years. But with inflation stubbornly high, the supplement will do little to help the many workers barely able to subsist, Radio Ozodi reported on August 29.

• The Asian Development Bank announced on August 26 that it will grant Tajikistan $323 million in development assistance over the next three years. 

• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 22.3 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. 

• Restaurant turnover fell almost 23 percent in the first seven months of 2020, Asia-Plus reported on August 25, citing the state statistics agency. The fall was most pronounced in the capital, at over 33 percent, whereas in the southern Khatlon region business reportedly increased by over 8 percent.

• Money transfers to Russia increased 47 percent in the first quarter of 2020, the UN said in an August 21 report, "possibly as a result of financial support from families to migrants who are currently in Russia without a job." Usually money flows in the opposite direction, but these remittances have fallen dramatically since the pandemic began. 

• Cargo transport volumes fell 1.1 percent in the first seven months of 2020, compared to 2019, Asia-Plus reported on August 20. Most of the drop was in air cargo, which decreased 42 percent; rail transport, on the other hand, increased by 15.6 percent. Overall passenger transport fell 9 percent.

• Dushanbe has asked Beijing for debt relief, Asia Plus reported on August 13. Tajik debts to China account for some 40 percent of the total, or $1.2 billion of $3.1 billion. 

• Inflation rose to 7.7 percent in the first six months of 2020, the National Bank said on August 13, a figure on a par with 2019 rates. But inflation is expected to near 10 percent for all of 2020, which would be the highest in recent memory.

• Workers at Tajikistan's largest factory and largest industrial project say they have not been paid in months, Asia-Plus reported on August 6. TALCO, the aluminum factory that has long enriched the president's family, and Rogun, intended to be the world's tallest hydropower dam, are not responding to journalists' questions. 

• Schools will reopen on August 17, earlier than normal to allow students to make up for time lost in the spring, Asia-Plus reported on August 5.

• A year-long pandemic-induced crisis would see remittances to Central Asia fall by $3.4 billion this year, or about 24 percent, the Asian Development Bank said on August 3. Russia, the largest source of remittances for the region, is experiencing a sharp economic decline due to coronavirus as well as low oil prices. Last year, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan received the equivalent of about 30 percent of GDP in the form of cash transfers from laborers abroad.
• Remittances from Russia in the first half of 2020 decreased 15 percent year-on-year, the chairman of the National Bank said in a July 22 briefing short on details. Tajikistan’s economy is perilously reliant on remittances. In 2019, those payments amounted to around $2.5 billion, which is equivalent to around one-third of GDP.
• Tajikistan's external debt grew by $170.9 million in the first half of 2020 to $3.1 billion, the finance minister told journalists on July 29, putting the country's ratio of external debt to GDP at 36.1 percent. The vast majority, $1.1. billion, is owed to China's Eximbank.
• The number of migrants departing for work abroad fell 57 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, the government said on July 23, Asia-Plus reported. 

TURKMENISTAN

• Foreign companies operating in Turkmenistan are evacuating employees on charter flights, we reported on August 25. The government still denies the pandemic has reached the country.

• State employees in the Lebap province, including workers at state-owned factories and teachers, have been sent on unpaid leave for three months, Central Asia Media reported on August 6. 

• The pandemic is forcing the government to put its long-term industrial plans on hold. The most notable among these being the trans-Afghan TAPI natural gas pipeline. This much was admitted on July 27, during a video-conference meeting of representatives from project participant nations. One conclusion reached during that exchange was that work would be “activated” once the pandemic is over. Since Turkmenistan is so mysterious about its own health crisis, however, it is difficult to understand how anybody will know when and if that has happened. 

• Authorities in Ashgabat have begun removing ATMs to prevent crowding, exile-run Turkmen News reported on July 22, making it impossible for people to withdraw their salaries, pensions and child benefits. 

UZBEKISTAN

• Lukoil says it is operating its Uzbek gas production infrastructure at 20 percent capacity, due to the decline in purchases from China, Uzdaily reported on August 30. 

• Finance Minister Timur Ishmetov told parliament on August 26 that external debt grew by 10.9 percent, or $17.3 billion, in the first half of 2020. In May the IMF said that the country’s debt to GDP ratio rose from 34 percent to 44 percent in the year to 2019. 

• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 7.2 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. 

• Foreign trade turnover fell 19 percent, or $4.7 billion, year-on-year between January and July, the state statistics committee reported on August 20. China remains the country's largest trading partner. Retail activity decreased 2.9 percent in the same period.

• Fitch assigned the National Bank of Uzbekistan a "BB-" rating on August 19 with "outlook stable" reflecting "moderate probability of support from the Uzbek authorities in case of need." "Our view of support propensity also captures NBU's clearly defined policy role, including the financing of Uzbekistan's long-term infrastructure and development projects and state-owned enterprises."

• Remittances flowing into Uzbekistan fell 7 percent in the first seven months of 2020, to $3 billion, the Central Bank said on August 18.

• The government has pledged to provide prospective migrant laborers with loans of up to $1,000 on favorable terms to cover the costs of travel and work permit registration fees, state media reported on August 17. An Uzbek banking source familiar with the initiative told Eurasianet that the credit will be repayable within two years at an interest rate of 25 percent per annum. Although onerous by Western standards, the terms are relatively forgiving in the Uzbek lending context.

• The Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Manila-based Asian Development Bank are together loaning $100 million to Uzbekistan to help the country strengthen its heath system and effectively respond to the pandemic, the AIIB announced on August 18. Uzbekistan has received over $1 billion in loans to fight coronavirus so far in 2020 from three multilateral development banks, the Finance Ministry announced on July 28: the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank.Trade with Afghanistan increased by 24 percent in the first half of 2020 despite the pandemic, an advisor to the president said on August 14. 

• The Cabinet of Ministers decided to postpone bonus payments to state employees – with the exception of doctors and social workers – until next January in order to reserve funds to battle coronavirus, Kun.uz reported on August 14.

• The World Bank estimates another half million Uzbekistan citizens will be pushed below the poverty line during the pandemic, Podrobno reported on August 12. 

• Government employees with the state sanitary and epidemiological service in five provinces have embezzled 1.75 billion sum ($171,000) from coronavirus relief funds, Senate Speaker Tanzila Narbaeva said on August 7. But a man who called for more transparency in the distribution of foreign aid was called for questioning by the security services, we reported on August 10. 

• The price of a sheep has risen about 67 percent in one year, according to a calculation by local journalists on the Kurban Khayit (Eid al-Adha) holiday, when families with the means are encouraged to sacrifice a sheep. Podrobno.uz reminded readers that the sheep must be purchased with money earned honestly.