Recent headlines in Baku's opposition newspapers have highlighted new international criticism of President Ilham Aliyev's October 15 election. Despite the ongoing controversy, Aliyev has won recognition from the United States and the European Union, leaving many civil society leaders feeling betrayed. Even though criticism has surfaced, many citizens still suspect that Western governments will accept any leader in the Caspian who keeps the region's oil and gas accessible.

Growing international criticism of the October 15 elections is beginning to replace the feeling of betrayal that has dominated the opposition camp. Opposition leaders who had hoped for the presidency, chafed at statements by western diplomats promising to "work together with [Aliyev] in the future."

"You see, these countries have invested billions of dollars in Azerbaijan's oil sector. In a way, they are forced to cooperate with the new President" said Ali Kerimli, the chairman of the opposition Popular Front party in an interview to ANS TV. Others have been even more critical of what they see as negative western influence. Musavat activist Gabil Huseinli implicated Washington and Brussels, saying: " Western countries, foremost the US, have cheated the democratic principles in Azerbaijan." Another opposition activist, Fazil Gazanfaroglu, told the opposition press: "We lost the elections not to the ruling clan, but to the outside forces."

In fact, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe promptly called the elections unfair, and the United States' diplomatic spokesperson also said they fell short of international standards. But the State Department in Washington was too evenhanded for some Azerbaijanis to accept. "We call on Azerbaijan's Government to follow through on its OSCE commitments, and to fulfill its duties for the safety of its citizens and the safeguarding of their rights," Deputy Spokesman J. Adam Ereli said on October 16. "We also call upon the opposition parties to act peacefully and within the law."

Since then, various institutions have stepped up criticism of the October 15 elections. On October 21, Ereli directly addressed accusations of irregularities. "Azerbaijan's leadership missed an important opportunity to advance democratization by holding a credible election," he said. The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe , a body of the United States Congress responsible for OSCE obligations, set up hearings for November 13, but canceled the hearing when the House of Representatives went into recess.

In western Europe, the monitoring committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe joined other oversight organizations in airing details of the flawed election and calling for reforms. All along, international advocacy groups, most notably Human Rights Watch, have called on international bodies to demand an independent commission for investigating post-election arrests. On November 13, court officers arrived at Musavat's office to begin removing its contents.

Human Rights Watch reported that at least 190 members of opposition parties had undergone arrest in a week after the elections. "If this crackdown continues," senior researcher Peter Bouckaert said in a statement, "there won't be an opposition left in Azerbaijan by the end of this month."

But recent strong language may do little to stem anti-Western passions. Husseinli accuses western officials of managing their own image and seeking to calm calls for justice in Azerbaijan. Hopes for a re-vote, which some had harbored in late October, now seem unfounded. Activists look around and see all Azerbaijan's geopolitical influences- Turkey, Russia, the European Union and the United States- expressing support for the idea of fair elections but standing behind Aliyev despite the nature of his victory.

Most analysts expect optimism motivated by Western criticism to fade, as opposition leaders assess regional reality. The lingering disappointment may make opposition parties more likely to approach future elections without strong hope for moral backing from foreign governments. It is not realistic to expect opposition parties to spurn the West, which remains the country's most important source of aid and hope. A more plausible worry is that authorities, having endured relatively mild rebukes from European and American institutions, will step up pressure on the civil society, opposition parties and the free media.