Domestic Issues Loom Large During Azerbaijani Leader's Visit to Washington
Azerbaijani President Heider Aliyev is making a hastily planned visit to the United States. Opposition leaders say that health concerns prompted the trip, while Aliyev aides insist that the president is "hale and hearty." Meanwhile, political analysts in Baku believe that Aliyev seeks to use his meetings with US leaders to effectively launch his re-election campaign.
Aliyev met February 26 with US President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Colin Powell. Discussions reportedly focused on the pending military action against Iraq, the political settlement for Nagorno-Karabakh and Caspian Basin energy development.
Azerbaijan, a Muslim nation, has cautiously backed the Bush administration's stance on Iraq. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Aliyev's visit thus offers the Bush administration an opportunity to show that it enjoys broad support for a quick strike against Saddam Hussein.
There are indications that Aliyev prefers to frame the Washington visit in a domestic political context. Azerbaijan is scheduled to hold presidential elections in late 2003, although a date has yet to be formally announced. A larger than usual contingent of state television and radio representatives is accompanying Aliyev in Washington. Political experts suggest the increased media presence is connected with the approaching elections, as Aliyev seeks to emphasize via mass media that he enjoys Washington's trust.
In Baku, opposition leaders have conversely sought to damage Aliyev's political stature, alleging that the US trip was necessitated by the president's frail health. In February 2002, Aliyev underwent prostate surgery at a clinic in Cleveland, Ohio. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The opposition, hoping to plant doubts among the electorate over whether the president is healthy enough to serve out another term, has hinted that Aliyev requires new treatment at the Cleveland clinic.
An article published in the Yeni Musavat newspaper on the eve of Aliyev's latest US visit alleged that the president's health has seriously deteriorated in February. "Doctors said that surgery was needed. The decision was made ahead of reports about the US visit," the February 23 article claimed.
Aliyev aides have vigorously denied that Aliyev's health is failing. At the same time, officials have been tight-lipped about the president's visit to the Cleveland clinic. Aliyev is expected to travel to Cleveland either February 27 or 28. Presidential aide Novruz Mamedov, however, would neither confirm nor deny that Aliyev will visit the clinic. At the same time, the president's press office has not designated the US trip as an "official" or "state" visit.
Analysts in Washington said the Bush administration was unlikely to provide any overt sign that it supports Aliyev's reelection. "I don't think the US signal is to support Aliyev," said Zeyno Baran, program director for Energy and Security for the Nixon Center. "Looking at what has been going on with the Armenian elections, the United States has been very supportive of democratic [development] there."
The ongoing election controversy in Armenia [see related EurasiaNet story], centering on allegations of widespread electoral fraud carried out by incumbent Robert Kocharian's administration, has brought increased attention to the looming ballot in Azerbaijan. The fact that Kocharian failed to secure reelection during the first round of Armenian voting is raising the hopes among those in neighboring Azerbaijan who seek to unseat Aliyev.
Ali Kerimli, leader of the reform branch of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, a leading opposition party, said in a February 22 interview with Yeni Musavat that Aliyev was already facing rising pressure to hold fair elections. "This once again shows that international organizations' interest in elections in the South Caucasus has grown," Karimli said, referring to the Armenian electoral storm. "The Azerbaijani government should prepare itself for democratic elections."
Aliyev supporters publicly scoff at the notion that the incumbent would try to rig the vote in order to secure reelection. "The presidential elections will be held [and demonstrate] the absolute superiority of Heidar Aliyev's supporters," the executive secretary of the pro-presidential New Azerbaijan Party, Ali Ahmadov, told Yeni Musavat on February 22. "The Armenian situation will not be repeated in Azerbaijan."
In his only public appearance in Washington on February 25, Aliyev did not address Azerbaijani domestic issues, including his health and the upcoming election. He focused mainly on Caspian Basin energy development, especially the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan BTC pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The Azerbaijani leader hinted that unspecified "outside forces" were striving to obstruct pipeline construction. "Azerbaijani security services have information that some foreign countries have funded efforts to hamper the construction of the pipeline," Aliyev said.
Aliyev's emphasis on energy issues came as no surprise to Baran and other Washington observers. The BTC project "is really what makes Azerbaijan relevant to the United States," Baran said.
Kenan Aliev is a journalist based in Washington, DC.
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