Ending a tumultuous year in Azerbaijani politics, a coalition of nine opposition parties decided on December 11 to sit out discussions about a new electoral code. This decision suggests that more controversy about the code will stir the nation before an October 2003 presidential election.

In boycotting the discussions, the self-titled Coordinating Center of the Opposition complained that they should be full parties, rather than guests, in any discussion of electoral law. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and the Council of Europe planned the discussions, which were to begin after a draft of the new electoral law became public in early December.

OSCE experts arrived in Baku on November 15 to meet with authorities responsible for the new law, and will monitor the October 2003 elections. The administration produced a law that would govern its own efforts to stay in power; when the OSCE invited opposition figures as guests, they decided to protest the entire process. "We want these roundtables to produce a real result. We do not want to participate in a political talk-show," said Sardar Djalaloglu, secretary-general of the influential Azerbaijan Democratic Party. The coalition of opposition parties demanded live TV coverage of the roundtables and the creation of a commission that would reconcile disputes over the document. The authorities refused to entertain these ideas.

The stakes are high for both sides. The administration's proposed electoral code is designed to be Azerbaijan's first unified code, regulating elections to the parliament, municipalities and the referendum. Most importantly, the code will regulate the upcoming presidential elections, and must be in force six months before the October vote. Since opposition parties hope to make an impact on those elections and potentially unseat President Heidar Aliyev's party, their inclusion in the law's creation has become a critical point for international observers. Aliyev's authorities sent their draft code to the OSCE, the Council of Europe's Venice Commission, the International Foundation for Election Systems and the US Embassy.

The Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP) accused the OSCE in early December of playing together with the government and damaging the interests of the domestic opposition. OSCE officials countered that they were working with the government to improve the draft and bring it to public discussion. On December 13, Azerbaijani Milli Istiqlal Party official Ilhar Mammadov discredited the International Foundation for Election Systems, calling its faith in the proposed code naîve. (Experts from that body also dismissed the idea of creating election commissions, according to local reports.)

Azerbaijan's electoral system has lived with charges of fraud for years. International monitors deemed both the parliamentary elections in 2000 and the national referendum that took place on August 24 "neither free nor fair," and local opposition parties consistently criticize electoral activity. Under a unified code, international players and domestic parties hope that gaps between the various election-related laws will vanish and the electoral process will become simpler. The code, as the administration has drafted it, does provide some innovation but does not silence concerns about corruption and vote-rigging.

The draft of the code consists mainly of five current electoral laws, with procedural innovations. It calls for the usage of envelopes and numbered ballots, transparent voting boxes and requires candidates to disclose monetary deposits made in their name. It does not, however, change the composition of the election commissions and allow domestic NGOs to monitor the elections. On that score, many opposition figures view the draft as inadequate.

"The central election commission and lower election commissions must be neutral," says Ali Karimli, leader of the Popular Front party. "Under the proposed formula, they will remain under the control of the authorities. This in turn will not provide for free and fair elections." Isa Qambar, chairman of the Musavat party, called the document "worse than the previously existing laws" and charged that it would set up a law that tolerates false results in upcoming elections.

Opposition figures have also pointed out international feedback to the draft as indicating that the draft is flawed. "The OSCE has submitted 300 recommendations to the draft of the code," says Mammadov. "What kind of a badly-prepared document is it, that it receives so many recommendations?"

But by boycotting roundtables, opposition parties may have rejected their strongest opportunity for bilateral dialogue. The document is expected to enter Parliament for a first reading in January, putting it on pace for a prompt adoption by April. Meanwhile, tensions between the government and the opposition figure to increase. After the August referendum and an autumn marked by popular protests, the domestic opposition may emerge as a united force in 2003. The ruling party has just celebrated the ten-year anniversary of its foundation and claims to "rule out" opponents' chances in October. As opposition parties abandon the hunt for bigger shares of Parliament and coordinate to unseat Aliyev's team, their refusal to endorse the new election code may touch off another year of turmoil in Azerbaijani politics.