Four Years After End of Civil War, Peace Remains Tenuous in Tajikistan
Tajikistan on June 27 marks the fourth anniversary of a peace deal that ended a bitter five-year civil war. The commemoration comes shortly after Tajik military units wrapped up a four-day operation to crush an armed band of renegades operating near Dushanbe. That fighting underscores the tenuous nature of stability in Tajikistan, and indicates the reintegration process of former government opponents is far from complete. The ongoing difficulties with reconstruction could have significant repercussions for all of Central Asia, as Islamic militants based in Afghanistan are widely expected to try to exploit Tajikistan's social and political disarray to carry out destabilizing raids this summer.
Tajik authorities reported June 25 that Interior Ministry troops routed the armed band headed by former United Tajik Opposition (UTO) field commanders Rakhmon Sanginov and Mansur Muakkalov, killing 36 and taking 66 into custody. Unofficial sources placed government casualties at nine killed and 10 wounded, the Interfax news agency reported. Earlier in June, Sanginov's band had sparked a crisis by taking seven police officers hostage in a village outside Dushanbe. The hostage incident ended without bloodshed, but, aiming to prevent further disturbances, authorities launched the assault June 22 against the renegades. Officials had linked the group to up to 400 crimes since the signing of the 1997 peace accords.
The Sanginov clashes were the latest in a string of violent incidents in Tajikistan during the past few months, beginning with the April 11 assassination of First Deputy Interior Minister Khabib Sanginov who had played a key role in promoting peace in 1997. At the time of his death, Sanginov (no relation to Rakhmon) was responsible for coordinating a campaign to eliminate illegal armed formations. Another armed incident in the Romit Valley, about 15 miles outside Dushanbe, involved former UTO commander Yakoub Gofurov and left three children dead and five others wounded.
The incidents have helped to refocus attention on the reintegration of former UTO fighters. Under the terms of the 1997 peace accords, UTO partisans were amnestied. About 5,000 fighters returned from Afghan camps to Tajikistan. Many settled down in the Karategin valley, which has the reputation of being one of Tajikistan's most lawless areas, and attempted to earn a living through farming. A significant number of fighters were incorporated into the Tajik army, while others emigrated to Russia and other CIS states, searching for regular employment.
UTO leaders were brought into official structures, and today they occupy roughly 30 percent of top government posts. But not all former UTO commanders received a government sinecure, and some leaders, along with their armed followers, have continued to stir trouble by engaging in criminal activity. The ranks of the discontented swelled in 2000, when President Imomali Rahmonov issued a decree ending contract military service, effectively leaving hundreds of former UTO fighters unemployed. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].
Former UTO commanders who are now high-ranking government officials have denied any connection to activities of the Sanginov-Muakkaalov band. At the same time, former UTO leader Said Abdullo Nuri called for government restraint, saying that civilians would suffer most from a government campaign to wipe out the renegades.
In an anniversary message, President Rahmonov indicated that much remained to be done to forge a durable period of stability. Rahmonov added that the government was prepared to take a hard-line stance against illegally armed groups. "We should not take peace for granted," Rahmonov said. "Terrorist and extremist activities, drug dealing and the most horrible of all hostage taking have been committed
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