Of all the priorities the Greek chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has set itself for 2009, maintaining a field presence in Georgia appears to be the most important.
The OSCE's mission to Georgia faces imminent closure after Russia objected to a routine consensual extension of its mandate, which expired on December 31. "We will spare no efforts to keep our mission [to Georgia]," Greece's Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis told journalists in Vienna on January 15, shortly after calling upon the OSCE's Permanent Council to show the "goodwill and political courage" that she said were needed to achieve that goal.
Termination of field activities would not only mark the end of the OSCE's South Ossetia monitoring mission. As officials with the organization privately say, it would also raise questions concerning the OSCE's further participation in the Geneva talks on Georgia and, more generally, its role as a regional peace broker.
The OSCE mission to Georgia had its headquarters in Tbilisi and a field office in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, which, before the August Russian-Georgian war, housed eight unarmed military monitoring officers (MMO). This office was evacuated during the conflict and has not been reopened. OSCE monitors, who were transferred to Tbilisi during the war, have retained only limited access to areas under South Ossetian control.
The crisis over the OSCE mission emerged last fall when Russia first suggested that the Tskhinvali office be split from the Tbilisi headquarters and be given a separate mandate that reflected what the Kremlin called the "new realities on the ground" -- in other words, the Kremlin's recognition of South Ossetia's independence and Georgia's subsequent decision to withdraw from OSCE-sponsored peacekeeping mechanisms.
Difficult talks among participating states ensued. They brought no result.
On December 22, the then-Finnish chairmanship of the OSCE announced the end of the consultations and said the closing down of the mission would start at the beginning of 2009. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Georgia and the United States have accused Russia of torpedoing the talks as part of a strategy to destroy the OSCE from within.
Moscow rejects the accusation and says it remains open to a negotiated solution that allows the OSCE to keep a field presence in Georgia, but with a modified mandate. "We understand that our partners will need time to assess the geopolitical changes that took place and draw rightful and objective conclusions for themselves," Anvar Azimov, Russia's envoy to the OSCE, wrote in a December 28 article carried by the Regnum news agency.
The organization insists that, as of today, its mission is in a state of "technical closure" and continues to perform its duties.
Meanwhile, the Greek chairmanship secured a pledge from Moscow to hold off on pressing for lasting changes until February 18, when the mandates of 20 additional monitors are set to expire. The additional monitors were dispatched to Georgia after the warring sides agreed to a ceasefire in August. In effect, OSCE officials now see February 18 as the deadline for reaching an agreement on the mission.
After taking over the OSCE chair on January 1, Bakoyannis stated her intention to initiate fresh talks among participating states on the OSCE's role in the region. Bakoyannis discussed a draft action plan with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov when she visited Moscow on January 21. Her special representative for protracted conflicts, Charalampos Christopoulos, handed over the proposal to Georgian and South Ossetian authorities earlier in the month.
The Greek chairmanship has declined to divulge details of the plan, which OSCE officials describe as a variation on a proposal by Finland in December. The Finnish plan included two parallel, mutually independent field offices -- one in Tbilisi and one in Tskhinvali -- that would have been directed from Vienna by a special representative of the chairman-in-office.
Sources familiar with the talks told EurasiaNet that modifications suggested by the Greek chairmanship relate to the number and designation of field representations, their respective duties, and their degree of subordination to Vienna. Christopoulos says he believes initial reactions to the draft bode well for the future. "Of course, this set of ideas has to be fleshed out and there are going to be changes. But everyone says that this basic set of ideas is interesting and that we can work on that," he told reporters in Vienna on January 22.
After meeting with Bakoyannis, Lavrov commended the Greek chairmanship for developing a proposal "that goes in a realistic direction and takes the 'de facto' and 'de jure' situation into account."
Christopoulos described the consultations he and Bakoyannis had in the Russian capital as "very positive and constructive." But he hinted that Moscow expressed reservations about the plan.
Apparently, Tbilisi has even stronger objections. Georgian officials have not commented on the Greek draft. However, State Minister for Reintegration Temur Iakobashvili on January 15 warned that Georgia would not agree on modalities "that would contradict the fundamental principles of its territorial integrity." Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze in turn stated at a January 26 press briefing that Tbilisi would never assent to an OSCE mission's mandate "that would even remotely legitimize puppet governments created by the [Russian] occupation."
Bakoyannis is expected to discuss the Greek proposal with Georgian officials when she visits Tbilisi in mid-February.
The head of the OSCE mission to Georgia, Finnish diplomat Terhi Hakala, told Georgian media on December 23 that should a decision to terminate field activities in the country be taken she hoped the European Union would take over from the OSCE. Developing this idea further, some western commentators have suggested that the EU -- which has been maintaining 200 observers in Georgia since the end of the August war -- should already take advantage of the crisis to raise its profile and fill the vacuum left by the OSCE.
But Bakoyannis said transfer of responsibilities between the OSCE and the EU was "not an issue". "Nothing [of the kind] is being discussed. We want to keep the mission there and we're working toward that," she told journalists in Vienna.
Jean-Christophe Peuch is a Vienna-based freelance correspondent, who specializes in Caucasus and Central Asia-related developments.
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