Speaking via video link during a judicial proceeding, imprisoned former President Mikheil Saakashvili managed to interject a few comments on Georgia’s present political situation on May 22. Predictably, he condemned the ruling Georgian Dream-dominated government for driving the country “into an abyss.” Fractious opposition elements needed to join forces to regain power and put Georgia back on the path toward European Union accession, he added. 

“Friends, when there are party differences, we lose the country,” he said, according to a report distributed by 1TV, Georgia’s public broadcaster. With an eye on parliamentary elections in the fall, Saakashvili also appealed to voters who have supported the government in the past. 

“Separate yourself from this flock, don't be sheep, and let's all think together how you see the future of Georgia,” he said, adding that the party he founded, the United National Movement (UNM), was prepared to “make any concessions” to help forge a united opposition front. 

It remains to be seen whether Saakashvili’s vision of a UNM-led opposition alliance will become reality. While there have been rumblings that such a bloc is needed to unseat Georgian Dream, various political players are having difficulty overcoming old divisions to form a unified front for the upcoming vote, according to two people familiar with ongoing discussions. 

It appears that jockeying for power among opposition entities has continued even as the Georgian Dream coalition rams through its ‘foreign agents’ law. Parliament is expected to override a presidential veto of the measure on May 28. 

On May 21, Mamuka Khazaradze, the leader of liberal opposition party Lelo, said voters deserved a viable alternative to Georgian Dream, while adding that candidates from Lelo would not run on the same ballot as UNM. “I agree with the idea of creating an alternative center,” he said. “We should give voters and citizens an alternative platform and choice.” 

Many critics of Georgian Dream also refuse to vote for UNM, due in large part to Saakashvili’s legacy of divisiveness. Lelo and others worry that hitching their respective wagons to a list shared with UNM will enable Georgian Dream to discredit them as UNM proxies. Doing so, they believe, would hand Georgian Dream an easy electoral victory. 

UNM activists and officials feel that characterization is unfair. The party has not held a parliamentary majority for over a decade, and while many Georgians recoil from the name alone – recalling scandals and the violent repression of protests that eventually led to Georgian Dream’s rise in 2012 – the party is still the country’s single largest opposition force. 

“If you make this election into a referendum for EU integration, then the united opposition gets 80 percent of the vote,” said Alexandre Crevaux-Asatiani, deputy director for foreign affairs for UNM, referencing data on how many Georgians want to join the EU. “If you start dividing the parties, then the picture gets a little bit more blurry.” 

Other opposition figures say UNM politicians believe too much of their own hype, pointing to signs that the party has shaky support and suffers from internal disagreements. 

“We believe that in order to defeat [Georgian Dream], you have to have another [option], because there is a huge amount of people who … say that they will never ever vote for either Georgian Dream or UNM,” said Grigol Gegelia, a foreign affairs spokesman for Lelo. “If you don’t give the people that sort of alternative, [Georgian Dream] will win.” 

He added that there has been a desire for a third major option in Georgian politics for years, and “now we have the best critical momentum where you could actually see one.”  

At present, opposition activists appear to be waiting to see how the United States and EU respond to the implementation of the ‘foreign agents’ law before deciding on next steps. 

Many fear that the ‘foreign agents’ law that is enacted will be even more repressive than the one initially considered by parliament. Prior to passing the law in its third reading on May 14, Georgian Dream lawmakers quietly amended the legislation – which would require organizations receiving more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to identify as “agents of foreign influence” or face stiff fines – to also apply to individuals. 

The measure has drawn condemnation from the EU’s legal advisors. In a long-anticipated review of the law’s legality released on May 21, the Venice Commission strongly urged lawmakers to repeal the legislation. In its opinion, the commission said that “fundamental flaws will involve significant negative consequences for the freedoms of association and expression, the right to privacy, the right to participate in public affairs as well as the prohibition of discrimination.” 

The next day, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze slammed the commission’s findings, saying it was a body lacking in “professional dignity.” Georgian Dream collaborated with the Venice Commission as recently as last fall, showing how quickly the party has pivoted away from Western institutions. 

Both the US and EU have hinted at sanctioning members of Georgian Dream should the legislation enter into force. The US package would introduce visa bans for politicians involved in passing the law, as well as mandate that officials report to congress on Chinese and Russian influence in Georgia. On May 22, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the highest ranking US official to comment on the developments, characterized the ‘foreign agents’ law as “right out of Moscow’s playbook.” 

“We are looking very hard at what we can do in response to that,” he added. “And I anticipate we will take action.”