The Azerbaijani government is seeking to defuse lingering tension through negotiations after security troops used force against protesters in a Baku suburb regarded as a bastion of Islamic traditionalism. Officials have intimated that the early June confrontation in Nardaran was fomented by Iranian agents. Opposition leaders, however, assert that the government's failure to address economic problems was a major factor in the tumult. Whatever the cause, some observers worry that a destabilizing precedent has been established in Azerbaijan.

The June 3-4 rioting left one dead and at least 16 injured in Nardaran, about 19 miles northwest of Baku. In recent months, the village had been the scene of multiple protests with both economic and religious antecedents. Authorities have portrayed the unrest as inspired by "foreign powers," and have claimed that villagers used illegally obtained weapons against security forces. Authorities also arrested an unspecified number of villagers, as well as the Islamic Party leader Haji Alikram Aliyev.

In the days since the disturbance, however, popular opinion has turned against the government. A statement issued by Leyla Yunus, head of the Institute for Peace and Democracy in Baku, dismissed the claim that protesters were armed. "Stones were their [protesters'] only weapons," the statement said. "The Azerbaijani police shot unarmed people." The statement went on to assert that over 50 people had been wounded, but many of them refused to seek medical treatment out of fear that they would be arrested in hospitals.

An expert poll published June 9 by the Turan news agency revealed sentiment running strongly against President Heidar Aliyev's government. Almost 90 percent of those polled said "unresolved social problems" helped spark the clash, while 63 percent believed popular "dissatisfaction with official policy" was a major factor in the riot. Over 50 percent believed that the Nardaran incident would prompt a prolonged period of confrontation, with 30 percent saying that further bloodshed was probable.

Recent government action indicates that officials are concerned about the popular backlash. President Aliyev on June 12 dispatched an official delegation to meet with Nardaran village representatives. Following the closed-door meeting, one member of the delegation, presidential aide Yusif Humbatov, said that Nardaran village elders had made several demands, including the release of those arrested following the riot, the lifting of a police cordon around the village and the dismissal of local officials. Later on June 12, President Aliyev reportedly agreed to meet the demands and to take steps to address villagers' economic and social complaints.

Nardaran has long been a center of popular discontent. Street protests occurred in late 2001 over chronic shortages of gas and electricity. And on May 7, about 1,000 residents protested the appointment of Fezilet Mirzayev as head of the local executive committee. The chief complaint against Mirzayev reportedly was that he consumed alcohol, which is prohibited under the tenets of the Koran.

The opposition to Mirzayev is indicative of Islam's role in the Nardaran confrontation. Villagers have a reputation for holding conservative religious views. Indeed, upon entering Nardaran recently, a female reporter for the Baku newspaper 525 Gazeti reported that she was admonished by locals for her Western-style appearance. "The men in the village commanded me to wear a headscarf."

The government's secular orientation is a source of dissatisfaction among many Nardaran residents, who have clashed with officials in the past over religious-freedom issues. Some observers say a dispute over the wearing of hijabs, or traditional Islamic scarves, by schoolgirls provided fuel for the June riot. In April, villagers strongly complained about a decision in which girls wearing hijabs would be barred from attending the village school. The protest caused local officials to quickly withdraw the ban, and to offer villagers transport subsidies, a make-work scheme for 200 people and other benefits.

In May, officials reportedly prohibited students at higher educational institutions, including Baku State University, from wearing hijabs. The ban reportedly re-stoked anti-government feelings in Nardaran. The success of the April protest action may have spurred Nardaran residents to take an aggressive stance in the early June confrontation. Officials now claim that no official ban on hijabs was ever ordered, but merely recommended.

Despite the government's willingness to enter into a dialogue with Nardaran villagers, officials continue to maintain that Iranian agents have influenced recent developments. Some opposition politicians, such as Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar, have echoed the government's view.

According to media reports, Iranian mullahs have long been active in Nardaran. In addition, Iran has reportedly financed the construction of mosques and the operation of a religious school in the village. Meanwhile, eyewitnesses reported seeing pro-Iranian banners during the June 3 protest.

Some observers say that the government's confrontational approach to the discontent in Nardaran prompted many villagers holding traditional religious views to embrace radical protest methods. That the use of force by security forces didn't succeed in forcing Nardaran residents to submit to Baku's authority, combined with President Aliyev's apparent willingness to make concessions, could end up encouraging, rather than defusing anti-government sentiment, they add.