Fury over the Istanbul hostage drama threatens to sap Turkish sympathy for Chechens. "Biting the Hand That Feeds It" screamed a headline in the daily Sabah, in response to a raid staged by a group of pro-Chechen gunmen on the five-star Swissotel on April 22. Successful negotiations, in which government ministers personally took part, led the gunmen to release their mostly foreign hostages and give themselves up. The siege may have ended without bloodshed, but it is unclear whether the political post-mortem may yet result in some casualties.

The Chechen cause continues to attract widespread sympathy in Turkey, in part of because of the country's historic rivalry with Russia. There are also strong religious and cultural ties binding Turks and Chechens. Approximately 5 million Turkish citizens can trace their ancestry to the North Caucasus, and historic figures, such as Shamil, are etched as much in the folk memory of Turks as they are among Chechens.

Nevertheless, most Turks were outraged that a luxury hotel in the heart of Istanbul was targeted during such a critical period for the Turkish economy. Officials have been entertaining hopes that a good summer tourism season would help blunt the impact of the economic crisis – touched off in February by the devaluation of Turkey's currency. "You are damaging Turkey," the Tourism Minster, Erkan Mumcu, is reported to have told Muhammet Tokcan, the leader of the gunmen. "If tourism suffers (as a result of this action) millions of people could end up unemployed. How could you do this?"

The gunmen claimed they were motivated by a desire to call greater attention to Russian atrocities in Chechnya. They may have succeeded merely in alienating erstwhile supporters.

Many commentators admit to a sense of deja vu in the latest incident. Muhammet Tokcan, an ethnic Chechen born and raised in Turkey, was also behind the 1996 hijacking of a passenger ferry carrying mainly Russian tourists, en route from Istanbul to Sochi.

"Most Turks saw the [1996] hijackers as freedom fighters," recalls Hurriyet columnist Fatih Altayli. "Even institutions of state were sympathetic." After the 1996 hijacking ended, again without loss of life, parliament specifically changed the law to exempt the perpetrators from anti-terrorist legislation. They were subsequently convicted on the lesser charge of forming a criminal gang.

Shortly afterwards, Tokcan escaped from an open prison, and as other members of the gang followed him to freedom under dubious circumstances, questions began to arise about the possibility of official collusion. Tokcan himself was recaptured in 1999 while trying to enter the country illegally, but benefited from an amnesty earlier this year.

He briefly re-emerged in the public eye just weeks before the Swissotel raid, at a time when an apparently unrelated group of Chechen militants forced a Russian airliner en route from Istanbul to Moscow to land in Saudi Arabia. That incident did end in bloodshed. In the aftermath, Tokcan appeared on television and warned of further terrorist actions.

"I don't understand why the national intelligence service wasn't tracking this man," complained Istanbul's police chief Kazim Abanoz.

In Turkey's heated political climate, conspiracy theories abound on the Swissotel incident and the government's mixed record on preventing terror incidents. Explanations range from political skulduggery aimed at embarrassing the Interior Minister to charges that Tokcan is the tool of Russian intelligence. In reality, the explanation is probably more prosaic. Says one veteran Turkish diplomat, "We have been so used to turning a blind eye to the antics of these people, that we didn't see this coming. I'm afraid you reap what you sow."

Some commentators suggest that instead of focusing on the impact on tourism, Turkish officials should be concerned about the consequences of the hostage affair on civil society development. Writing in the daily Hurriyet, Enis Berberoglu says Turks should come clean and identify the real issue at stake. "Terrorism is a crime against humanity," says Berberoglu. "Turkey should leave behind the days when ideas can be imposed at gunpoint."