Who will get to use the Ayni airbase in Tajikistan? India, Russia, China, Iran or the U.S.? The Tajikistan newspaper Ozodagon (via BBC Monitoring), in a good, thorough analysis, says it looks like India is in the lead.
Russia, according to the article, doesn't see any need to use the base (it already has a base in Tajikistan) but just wants to keep anyone else from using it. China has never expressed much interest, and the U.S. hold on Manas in Kyrgyzstan seems secure for now, obviating the need for a base in Tajikistan.
Iran is an interesting possibility:
At the same time, there is a probability that Iran may use the Ayni airfield as a military base. This issue might have been discussed during the recent visit of the Iranian defence minister to Dushanbe, although there has been no official report on this issue. However, it is not for nothing that the Iranian military delegation paid a visit to Dushanbe with the aim of stepping up military cooperation. Iran may also consider itself to be "a great power"... [ellipses as published]
But India, more than anyone else, is giving signals that it is serious about the base:
Media outlets in Delhi and Islamabad even estimated benefits that their states would have from the establishment of an Indian military base in Tajikistan. In Delhi, some newspapers even reported that this air base would be significant for India as a lever to frighten Islamabad and terror groups operating in the region. Those reports were dismissed by Tajikistan's military bodies as ungrounded.
But funds were allocated by India to upgrade the airfield, and this country's president arrived in Tajikistan on a visit last autumn. In view of these, those Indian reports may have some grounds. This is because if we say that the Indian president, after visiting Moscow, arrived in Tajikistan only to step up economic relations, then the small volume of trade between Dushanbe and Delhi will make this statement somewhat improbable. That is why, it seems India has a better chance than others to use the Ayni airfield.
The article ends on a prescriptive note, suggesting that, as much American handwringing there is about the U.S. screwing up its relationship with Kyrgyzstan over Manas, Russia might have screwed up their relationship even more:
However, we should give preference to a state which usually keeps its promise. Kyrgyzstan's experience of this sort of cooperation shows that Russia has not yet made the promised investment worth 2bn dollars in exchange for deploying its military base in Kyrgyzstan. The Tajik authorities must think which state they should rent the Ayni airfield to in order to get more benefits in the long-term future.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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