Iran's current diplomatic mission to Iraq, led by former president Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, aims to bury the mutual hostility that was generated by the 1980-88 war between the two neighboring states. If successful, Iran will retain its influence in Iraq as the United States moves forward with the withdrawal of American forces.
The five-day visit by the Iranian delegation began March 2. At a joint news conference with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on the visit's opening day, Rafsanjani called for the withdrawal of foreign military forces, adding that the Iraqi people were capable of building "an independent state without the presence of aliens," the official Iranian news agency IRNA reported. Rafsanjani also has met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, but in a sign of lingering sectarian hostility that is intertwined with Iran-Iraq relations, Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi cancelled discussions with the Iranian delegation on March 4.
The al-Hashimi snub tacitly highlighted the overarching objective of the Iranian mission: Tehran wants to show Baghdad that it comes in peace; that it wants to drawn a line under the enmity of the past, and move forward in a new, mutually beneficial relationship.
"For a variety of reasons, this is a significant visit," a Tehran-based Iranian academic told EurasiaNet.
"Firstly, it is one of the largest official [Iranian] delegations to visit Iraq since the US invasion [in 2003]. Secondly, it is highly symbolic because on Iran's side it is led by Rafsanjani . . . and Mohsen Rezaii who was the commander of the Revolutionary Guards during that war. There are also relatives of the late Ayatollah Khomeini present."
"This means the two countries are finally burying the bitter memories of the war," continued the Iranian academic, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Beyond the symbolism, the visit should be a reminder that contrary to the claims about a loss of Iran's influence in Iraq, its influence remains quite strong."
Iranian policymakers have had to scramble over the past year to retain their influence, however.
For several years prior to 2008, Iran used Iraq for "forward defense," fostering disorder in the country in order to keep US officials preoccupied with keeping Baghdad stable, and thus unable to hatch plans aimed at promoting regime change in Tehran. Given Iraq's large population of Shi'a Muslims, Iranian leaders had several instruments at their disposal as they pursued their agenda, including the two main Shi'a parties -- Dawa and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) -- and, most importantly, the hardcore militants of Moqtada Sadr's Mahdi Army.
Everything started to change for Iran in the spring of 2008, when the Iraqi military moved against Sadr's militants, and neutralized their ability to create havoc. Then, earlier this year, the ISCI suffered a disastrous defeat in Iraq's local elections.
Iranian leaders detected a changing mood in Iraq early on, and took immediate action to adjust their own policies. Tehran sought to promote harmony among contending Shi'a factions in Iraq, while promising al-Maliki that it would no longer support radical militias. Iran has also offered extensive economic assistance.
Iran is keen to see Shi'a groups retain their influence in Iraq amid the US military withdrawal. To accomplish this aim, not only do Shi'a political forces in Iraq need to be more unified, Sunni suspicions need to be eased.
The coming months promise to be filled with uncertainty in Iraq, when the country could be vulnerable to another spike in violence. Iran, like Washington, is anxious not to see that happen. Tehran is interested in a stable transition, in which the current social and political trends are maintained, thus allowing Iran to retain a fair measure of influence. Once the American withdrawal is complete, however, Tehran's priorities in Iraq could always change.
Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.
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