Plenty of food for thought here, from the Washington Post's Spy Talk blog, via Intelligence Online:
[A] top Chinese general recently made an offer to Afghan President Hamid [Karzai] to train his army and security services “after NATO’s withdrawal.”
General Ma Xiaotian, deputy head of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army, “recently met Karzai to convince him that China would help him to form his new army and security services after NATO’s withdrawal...”
The obvious conclusion to draw -- if the report is true -- is that China is thinking longer-term than the U.S., and is circling, like a vulture, waiting for the western effort in Afghanistan to die so that it can swoop in. Usually this is thought to be an economic strategy, as in the huge deal the Chinese signed for the copper mine in Afghanistan. That China might be trying to expand its military influence, as well, will set off all sorts of alarm bells. But one analyst thinks that China may actually be trying to learn as much as teach:
John Lee, author of Will China Fail?, told me he's spoken to senior officers of the People's Liberation Army and People's Armed Police about the effort.
"Behind closed doors, both the PLA and PAP are worried about what they perceive to be their lack of ‘field experience’ in combating serious, coordinated insurgencies – they feel that their procedures, operational effectiveness, logistical capacity, etc., are ‘untested’," said Lee, foreign-policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.
Lee continued:
"So while Gen. Ma would have promoted the PLA and PAP’s competence to Karzai on this issue, it is highly likely that the PAP and PLA would do more than ‘train’ the Afghan security forces, by taking a front-line role. Of course, the possible future active involvement by PLA and PAP troops could also decisively shift Kabul’s allegiances toward Beijing."
I guess it's hard to know what Karzai might be thinking, but it seems like one of the few things that could make him less popular in Afghanistan is to move from being perceived as a lackey of the U.S. military being seen, instead, as a lackey of the PLA. Any thoughts?
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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