A prominent Kazakh émigré social media influencer and an outspoken critic of government policies in Kazakhstan was seriously wounded in an apparent hit job, which occurred near the man’s home in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. The victim’s wife has characterized the incident as an assassination attempt.

Aidos Sadykov, who operates a YouTube channel called Base, remained in intensive care in a Kyiv hospital on June 19, a day after being shot in the head.

Sadykov was driving into the courtyard of his apartment building on the afternoon of June 18 when a man brandishing a pistol approached the car and shot him in the driver’s seat, according to Sadykov’s wife, Natalya, who was also in the car at the time. Ukrainian police published a photo of a dark-colored vehicle with a broken window on the driver’s side, announcing that the search for the attacker was continuing.

In an interview for Radio Azattyk, the Kazakh service of RFE/RL, Sadykova said she is convinced the attempt was politically motivated. 

“We on the Base channel constantly fought, first with the regime of [the president Nursultan] Nazarbayev, and then with the regime of [Kassym-Jomart] Tokayev. Yesterday morning we released a video ... which alleged that Tokayev had become a puppet of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, and about agents of Russian influence,” Sadykova said.

The Sadykovs for years have been publishing information and documentation sharply critical of the behavior of top officials in Kazakhstan on their YouTube channel. They left Kazakhstan and resettled in Ukraine in 2014, fearing that if they remained in their homeland, they would face politically motivated retribution for their activities. Last October, Kazakh authorities placed the Sadykovs on a wanted list, alleging that the pair had engaged in criminally unlawful conduct by “inciting social hatred.”

Tokayev on June 19 condemned the attack, calling it a “serious incident.” He went on to say “all conflicts and disagreements in our society” should be addressed lawfully and “in accordance with basic international norms.” He also said Kazakh authorities were ready to provide assistance to Ukraine “to assist in identifying” the perpetrators.

Political observers in Kazakhstan offered varying opinions about the motivation and ramifications of the attempted murder.

Political scientist Dimash Alzhanov, known for voicing views critical of the government, said news of the attack sends a “a signal to the whole [of Kazakh] society.” If it was meant to have a chilling effect on the Kazakh émigré community, the incident may end up having the opposite than intended effect, he suggested.

“This is a harmful practice that will only make society more angry and create deeper rifts in it,” Alzhanov wrote on his Facebook page. “You can disagree with your opponents and critics, but it is extremely stupid and cowardly to destroy them.”

Another political scientist, Gaziz Abishev, whose opinions often align with those expressed by officials, said Sadykov’s YouTube channel did not exert much influence on domestic opinion, thus it would make little sense for officials to be involved in any plot to kill the influencer, all the more so given that the Sadykovs have refugee status in Ukraine.

“Such sabotage operations on the territory of another country are a hostile step, a gross violation of international ethical standards, the observance of which Kazakhstan closely monitors. The damage from such actions would be much greater than the illusory benefit from the assassination attempt,” Abishev wrote on his Telegram channel.