Kazakhstan’s long-serving leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, will seek re-election in 2012, a close aide has revealed. The announcement appears designed to stem speculation about a possible successor.

“The president of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Leader of the Nation, Nursultan Nazarbayev, intends to put his candidacy forward for the 2012 presidential elections,” Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, a presidential adviser for political affairs, said in an interview published in the Svoboda Slova newspaper on September 16. Yertysbayev said he had learned of Nazarbayev’s plans in a “comprehensive discussion” with him on September 3.

Kazakhstan’s constitution was amended three years ago, reducing the presidential term from seven to five years. Thus, in the likely event that Nazarbayev secures re-election, he would remain in power at least through 2017. Under special legislation, Nazarbayev is exempt from presidential term limits. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].

Indicating that Nazarbayev intends to remain in charge far beyond 2017, Yertysbayev said the president was looking ahead to the next 10 years. “A decisive decade lies ahead and we will, I am convinced, go through this period with our president,” he told Svoboda Slova, a news outlet with an editorial stance that is vociferously critical of Nazarbayev’s administration.

The reelection announcement seemed destined to disappoint the president’s critics, who accuse him of authoritarian tendencies. Astana’s controversial democratization record has been in the spotlight this year as it chairs the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has a mandate to promote civil society. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].

Nazarbayev has been in power since the Soviet era: he became leader of Soviet Kazakhstan in 1989, and president of the independent state in 1991.

Yertysbayev’s remarks came at a time when speculation about the country’s future leadership has been heating up. New legislation that went into force in June granted Nazarbayev the title Leader of the Nation, and carved out a political role for him even if he retired from the presidency. This prompted some observers to suggest that he was preparing to step down. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].

Analysts say that potential candidates to succeed Nazarbayev include Imangali Tasmagambetov, the popular and charismatic mayor of Astana; security service chief Nurtay Abykayev, a longtime presidential loyalist who is a member of Nazarbayev’s generation; the president’s son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, a wealthy businessman; and the head of the Samruk-Kazyna national welfare fund, Kayrat Kelimbetov, who is considered a rising political star.

Speculation about the succession has been rife since Nazarbayev’s landslide re-election in 2005, but he shows no sign of relinquishing power. Nazarbayev, who turned 70 this year, appears to be in vigorous health and maintains a packed daily agenda, closely supervising all aspects of foreign and domestic policy.

Yertysbayev is nicknamed “the president’s nightingale,” due to a perception that the opinions he voices are in line with Nazarbayev’s thinking. This is not the first time he has indicated the president’s intention to stand for re-election, but it suggests that the administration is firming up its plans.

Nazarbayev himself has never publicly confirmed his intentions, though he has said he will serve his country for as long as it needs him. He has shown no public sign of grooming a successor, nor has he ever clearly favored one candidate over another. In recent years, Nazarbayev has shown no tolerance for political rivals, moving quickly and forcefully to curtail the reach of any politician who becomes too powerful or popular. His two decades in power have made him an expert at balancing the political scales between the country’s powerful political and economic elites.