Trade data for 2024 is showing that Kyrgyzstan has an unhealthy dependency on China, even considering a wide discrepancy in figures released by Chinese and Kyrgyz official agencies.

Bilateral trade turnover during the first quarter of 2024 totaled $4.815 billion, according to figures compiled by China’s General Customs Administration. The trade imbalance between the two countries was pronounced: according to Beijing, Chinese exports to Kyrgyzstan totaled $4.163 billion, while only $22 million of Kyrgyz goods and services made their way to China during the reporting period.

Kyrgyz first-quarter data offered a starkly different overall trade picture. On May 13, the Kyrgyz National Statistics Committee reported that the country’s total trade turnover with the outside world amounted to $3.7 billion. But the Kyrgyz statistics did confirm a catastrophic imbalance in bilateral trade in Beijing’s favor: while Q1 turnover with China totaled $1.63 billion, Kyrgyz exports stood at meager $18.8 million. 

There are few means at Kyrgyzstan’s disposal to address the trade imbalance. The K-News outlet reported in mid-May that Kyrgyzstan’s Agriculture Ministry agreed to ship 10,000 tons of cherries to China this year. But the value of those exports will hardly make a dent in Kyrgyzstan’s trade deficit with Beijing.

Russia, the erstwhile dominant economic power in Central Asia, now lags far behind China in bilateral trade with Kyrgyzstan. According to the official Kyrgyz data, the mutual trade volume during the January-March period reached $611.5 million. More broadly, Q1 Kyrgyz turnover with the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which encompasses trade with Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus, amounted to $868.4 million, just over 50 percent of China’s total for the same period.